First of all, what an amazing match up. It's been a long time since we have had both number one seeds make it to the super bowl (1993, I think). Peyton Manning, son of Archie (the Saints super hero), will take on Payton (Sean) and the Saints in Miami, where Peyton won his other super bowl in 2006 in the rain (the only one where it rained the entire game).
A ton of story lines exist. Archie Manning was the world's greatest Saint for many years. But they never made the playoffs and never went to a super bowl. Finally, Payton (Sean) comes to town along with Drew Brees, and no one remembers the good old Archie days... it's all about Payton now, Sean, not Manning.
This is going to be an exciting super bowl as their ever was. Since 1997, nearly every super bowl has been more super than the one before. We remember Elway in 1997 beating Favre's Packers in a close one. Which until that point in time, was the best super bowl ever. Then in 1999, the Rams beat the Titans in a really close one. We all remember McNair's pass that was one yard short of a game winning touchdown. Then in 2001 the Patriots barely won by a field goal. And again in 2002. Then we had the McNabb last minute drive, but to no avail. Then 2005 the Jerome Bettis show in another squeaker against Seattle. Then 2006 when Manning beat the Bears. Who can forget Devin Hester's opening kickoff return? Then the 2007 between the 18-0 Patriots and Giants with the miracle catch? And then 2008 with another amazing catch and a drive by the Cardinals to nearly win it.
Wow!
So this should be another great game. Featuring two of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen. I have been saying all year, if you haven't had a chance to watch the Saints play, go back and watch them on NFL.com. Especially, focus on the game against the Patriots, and their two playoff games. In a single playoff run, the Saints may have sent two hall of fame quarterbacks into permanent retirement. Kurt Warner has certainly retired, and Favre has probably played his last game as well.
And we all have seen what Manning can do. He is a coach on the field, and knows exactly what is going on at all times. This is shaping to be a helluva match up!
The Offenses:
The Saints offense is a progression based offense. Very similar to a West Coast Offense. Use the underneath passes to set up the deep balls. Progress through your reads from deep to short (as opposed to short to deep in the West Coast Offense). Find the open guy. This offense is based off the theory that, we have a ton of tall, talented receivers, and QB that can get them the ball, can you cover our fourth and fifth options? Throughout the year, very few defenses had enough talent to cover that fourth or fifth receiver. Brees thrives on going through his progressions, and hitting the guy that is open. This progression based offense takes time to develop.
The Colts offenses is an adjustment based offense. Peyton comes to the line of scrimmage and from a single formation can run 5-7 different plays. He waits for the defense to reveal itself. He can wait till the play clock gets down to 6 seconds. If you move or reveal yourself, he quickly changes the play and snaps the ball with plenty of time. If it is a pass play, the first three seconds after the snap are all Peyton needs to figure out the defense and get rid of the ball to the open guy. He has so many weapons and options, it's crazy what he can do. Most teams will cover Wayne, but he has Clark, Collie, Garcon, Brown available as well. Can your safety cover the 4th receiver? Or did he cheat up and play the run? Manning can adjust on the fly.
When you watch the game Sunday, watch and contrast these two offenses. Manning will get rid of the ball within 3 seconds of the snap. Brees will hang on and go through his progressions and let plays develop. Watch this and see how they each play.
The Defenses: (my favorite part)
The Saints have an aggressive, attacking defense, just ask Warner and Favre. Their base formation is "2 Man Under". They play two zone safeties overtop and man cover the WRs underneath. Their front 7 is very aggressive and can get to the QB. They are energized and playing with aggression under Greg Williams scheme. They will try to come after Manning, but Manning's line can hold them back long enough for Manning to release the ball (which is quick). The cover two on the top needs to come up and cover the TEs and will be too far back for all the complicated short routes that Manning can employ. If they sit back to protect against the long ball, Manning will dink and dunk them to death. They have given up more 10-play plus drives to opposing teams than anyone else in the NFL. The weakness in this defense is their linebackers. They are the weak link. Unless the front 4 can get to Manning, it will be a long day for them. If they start blitzing, they may get to Manning on a few plays, but e will quickl figure out the protections, like he did against the Jets. In order for them to win the battle against Manning they will have to bring a lot of pressure with their front 4 alone, let the LBs sit back and react, while trying to cover the TEs and underneath routes, and use all the DBs to man cover the WRs and protect the back. It's a tall order. One safety should play close to the line and cover the TEs or RB out of the backfield. They should play only one high (one safety deep) and get out of the two high o most downs. They can show two high, but get out when 4 seconds are left on the play clock. They need to disguise their coverage for as long as possible.
The Colts defense is also a Cover 2 base, but they play zone underneath. They also let the middle linebacker drop into deep third coverage in your basic Tampa 2 coverage. They are a read and react defense. They don't like exotic blitzing. They want to beat you with Freeny and Mathis and just the front 4. They usually can, against most teams. Larry Coyer, the defensive coordinator, has been able to get more out of these guys. They are a very fast defense! That's also why they can afford to read and react. This matches up very well against the Saints fast offense and weapons. The best way for the Saints to neutralize this defense is to run right at them with the bigger backs, Bell and Thomas, and try and wear out the defense. If they try to get fancy with screens and tosses to Bush to the outside (or run stretch runs) they will be losing yardage, not gaining. The Colts defense is a tough match up for the Saints. Drew Brees likes to go through progressions and take his time, and that gives the front 4 time to get to him. Freeny and Mathis (or whoever replaces Freeny) will have more time and can get to Brees. The DBs can cover the WRs long enough and have enough speed and manpower to keep Brees in check more times than not. The Saints only way to beat this defense is to run right at them straight on. Brees can dink and dunk too, but the Colts want that. They have speed and discipline and will give you the 3 yard gain.
Watch these defenses! You'll see the aggressive Saints defense and then contrast that to the read and react Colts defense. Should be an awesome match up to watch and see how each defense is going to attack the other offense. An awesome day for people who enjoy defense! This is the part I can't wait to see!
Outcome?
Ultimately, I think Manning will pull it off. I don't think it's going to be a high scoring 40-40 game. Maybe one team will get to 30. I expect the score to be 28-24 or 31-24. I think Manning's quick read and release will paralyze the Saints defense and render them ineffective (at least the front 7). It's gonna be up to the back 4 to try and contain this offense, and they can't. They don't have the speed or intelligence. They may make a few plays here and there, but Manning will come out on top.
The Saints offense plays right into the Colts defense's strengths. They like plays to develop and take long. Brees likes to go through progressions (unless they change this), and that doesn't bode well against a fast, read and react defense. The Saints defense is easy to dissect for Manning. If they blitz, let them come and pass it to the vacated location. If they don't blitz, get rid of the ball quickly to the most open WR. If they play 2 high and sit back, run at them. If they come up, hit them deeper. Should be exciting to watch. What if the Saints defense does get to Manning a few times? He will figure it out and adjust, like he did against the Jets.
Final score?
Colts 28-24.
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