NFL Playoffs Championship Games Predictions

by Admin 23. January 2010 15:31

I am not sure why anyone is still reading my predictions, I haven't been particularly accurate. In fact, if you would have simply chosen the opposite of what I said, you'd be 80% accurate. But here are my thoughts anyways.

 

Jets at Colts: AFC Championship Game
This is a matchup of the No 1 versus No 5 seed. I am a big AFC guy and will be rooting for the winner of this game to go on and win the Super Bowl (I wish it was the Broncos). The Colts decided in week 15 to stop playing and lose to the Jets. The Jets won, and thereby snuck into the playoffs. Now the Colts get to play them at home for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Superior design? Or bad luck? We'd all like to think that the Colts had it planned to work out this way, but it may backfire. The Jets have the best defense in the league as well as the best rushing game. You can't argue with that. I really hope they win and punish the Colts for playing dead and not playing hard throughout the entire season. When they decided to stop playing, that really irritated me and got under my skin. It was very disappointing to see this. I hope the Jets come in, rush well, play good defense, and hang in long enough to pull off a win. Sorta like they did last week in San Diego. (I still can't believe that)

Unfortunately, I think Manning will pull off the win. They have too many weapons. If Revis shuts down Wayne, you still have Clark, Garcon, Collie, and others that can get open. It's a tough task, but the Jets can bring enough pressure to keep the Colts hurried and off balance. We saw that Manning can get rattled. The Ravens did it to him during the season, and the Broncos did to him the week prior to them resting and almost pulled out a win. The Jets sport the best defense and can pressure Manning. Who knows who will win. I want the Jets to beat the Colts, but I think the Colts will win in a fairly tough match up. Something like 21-17 or so. Maybe 24-21. But we aren't going to have either team go well over 30 points.

 

Vikes at Saints: NFC Championship Game
This is a tough game to figure out. The only game this week that is No 1 versus No 2. The Vikings have a ferocious front line and really get after quarterbacks. I think that will be the difference. The Saint's defense looks better than before, but it's a paper tiger when you really look at their statistics. They haven't played a particularly tough schedule and got ahead so quickly that the defense could blitz and get turnovers after the big lead. The Vikings should run against the Saints, and run often. The Saints defense is horrible against the run when the score is tied or 0-0. The Saint's offensive line is not going to be able to contain the Vikes pass rush. I think Brees will be running for his life all day. Of course, they could sprinkle in some screen plays to slow the rush down, but ultimately the Vikes pass rush will win the day. If Brees and the Saint's offense use faster drops and quick passes they can take advantage of the holes in the secondary and eliminate the pass rush. That is their only hope of winning. The Super Dome is a tough place to play, but teams like Dallas have shown us the way: get after the QB, and the Vikes excel in that department. Running against the Vikes defense, and the Williams brothers, is a futile experiment. Although not as stout as in years past, they will stop your run.

The Favre factor? Favre is more famous for throwing away big games than winning them. He needs to stay within himself and not try and force anything. Which he has done well this year. If he can limit his stupidity and just play within his team and within the game plan, he will do fine. I think the Vikes could run away with this one 24-10 or so.

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Football | Sports

NFL Week 12: Bears, Urlacher, Broncos, Saints, Playoffs

by Admin 1. December 2009 21:15

What's wrong with the Bears?

It's all about teaching and coaching. It's not the talent that is the problem. At the NFL level, you have the world's top 1800 athletes. They are faster, quicker, stronger than any other athletes anywhere. There is no comparison. Not even NBA players can match the vertical jumps that NFL players can jump. NFL players are the most explosive, most powerful, fastest players anywhere.

It's all about coaching. How does a team like Miami and Atlanta go from awful in 2007, to winning their divisions and going to the playoffs in 2008?

The Bears need coaching and teaching in the worst way possible. It's not enough to assemble great athletes. You have to train them, teach them, and put them in position to use their God-given talent. Kyle Orton said in September 2009 that he has learned more in the last 4 months in Denver than he has his last 4 years with the Bears. That is sad. Players need coaching and teachers. Mike Nolan loves teaching and he has turned Denver's defense from worst to first in one year. McDaniels and Nolan stress the ability to teach on their staffs. That's what Chicago needs.

If you watch the offense, the defense, the special teams.... Chicago lacks discipline, loses gap control, is in the wrong gap, the WR, OL, and QB are never on the same page. They aren't taking advantages of defenses weaknesses, they look pedestrian. They need teaching, scheming and coaching!

Urlacher!
Just shut up, Brian! Stop criticizing Jay Cutler. Urlacher should be in the film room teaching the rookie linebackers and defensive players what to look for and how to break down film. Criticizing the QB play at this time serves no purpose. Just shut up!

Broncos
The Broncos are back to playing Bronco football like they were the first few weeks of the season. The Defense is back. This team can't be beat if they play like that. Denver has already beaten nearly all the current division leaders and playoff teams (Cincy, Dallas, New England, San Diego). Orton staying healthy is huge, and they need him in every way. When he came back into the San Diego game, he drove down the field with two pass plays and had us in position to comeback. His two passes to Marshall against Washington were priceless (as were the catches). Denver's remaining schedule includes KC twice, Oak, Indy and Philly. Certainly winnable games. Will we beat Indy in Denver? I think so, it may end up being Indy's only loss. 

Saints
We are watching something magnificent! I mean magical. You only see this type of play once or twice per decade. The San Francisco 49ers did this in the late 80s and once with Steve Young in the 90s, the Ram's Greatest Show on Turf did this in 1999-2000, the 2007 Patriots, and now the 2009 Saints. Extremely impressive offense, with a defense that leads the league in takeaways. And they are doing it with authority! This defense is aggressive and punishing. They punished Wes Welker on those two catches. TWO! He had only two catches!

They lost a lot of starters in the secondary, but still managed to find guys to play and fill in (similar to what we used to pride new england for). Greg Williams on Defense and Sean Payton on offense, with Drew Brees and a bunch of 6th round pick WRs is amazingly electric! We are a witness to history. This is the best team in the NFL and will be in the Super Bowl.

Playoff Picture
In the NFC it looks like the Vikings and Saints will be the top two teams. The rest are pretty bad. There s huge disparity between the halves and havenots. The Saints are very difficult to beat at home and that Superdome is electric, loud, and tough to play in. The rest of the teams in the NFC are second fiddle. Teams with a decent chance are Arizona and Dallas if they can get a home game and things go their way. Philly is really the only other NFC team that looks playoff worthy.

The AFC is more muddy. There isn't such huge separation between the good and the bad. There are a lot of good teams. The AFC championship will likely end up being between Indy and Cincy. Other strong contenders include New England, Denver, and San Diego. (Note: Denver has beaten all of them). Anything can happen with the playoffs. All you need is a chance. Any of these teams can end up being the AFC representative in the Super Bowl, it just depends on what happens with the playoffs. Other teams that can still make it with a strong push include Pitt and Baltimore,. But it's probably unlikely that three teams make it from the AFC North. Go Broncos!

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Football | Sports

NFL Week 7: Saints, Bears, Packers, Bengals, and the rest!

by Admin 28. October 2009 14:24

The Broncos did not play this week.... and are still undefeated. They play Baltimore at Baltimore in week 8. It's a bad week to be a Baltimore fan!

Saints:
The Saints defense against the run, although ranked 4th overall, is awful when the Saints are tied or still at 0-0. They give up over 5 yards per carry when tied. Miami's gameplan of coming out running hard was spectacular and brilliant, as I expected. I have been telling people all week to watch out for the ground game Miami is bringing. Miami was up 24-3 at one point and could have won the game. Instead, they allowed Henne to throw two INTs that were returned for TDs. That was a deviation from the run-run-run-some-more gameplan. Stick to running! They are still playing well and are the only undfeated NFC team left, with Minny and NY losing. They really missed LT Jammal Brown on their O-Line. Brees was seeing more pressure than usual.

Bears:
It's not just Jay Cutler's fault. The Bear's problems run deeper. They can still turn it around, but it is an institutional and mindset dilemma. No urgency, no immediacy. Very laxidasical. They need to get motivated and get excited! Lovie is way to calm and relaxed. He needs to fire them up. The defense will improve as the players gel together and mesh together. For now, you are gonna have some bad games, and they were playing the Bengals! Cincy is on a tear, and I can't believe what I was watching. Palmer and his crew marched up and down the field at will. Total will! the Bear's didn't even exist! That is probably the worst the Bears have played all year. You can only go up!

Cutler needs to start taking blame for his idiotic decisions. The cute responses are not going to "cut it" for long. Come on, Jay!

Bengals:
Wow! Wow! And wow! These guy are red hot and unbelievably good! I don't want to face them ever again! Don't get me wrong, Denver can still beat them and rattle Palmer.... I just think it'll be a lot harder!

Packers:
I love watching Ryan Grant run and Rodgers throw well despite an awful offensive line. Grant runs with authority and deciciveness. He just picks a hole, puts his toe in the turf, and runs upfield. I can appreciate a good runner. Whenever you play backyard football, or in various leagues, you see teams find some random big kid and throw him in at RB and think he will do well because he is big and fast. That doesn't always work out. He gets stuck in the backfield, can't get to the hole, fumbles on first contact. You can't just throw in some random "good looking athlete" type of guy and think he will do well. Running is an art, and you have to know how to do it! Grant runs well, doesn't fumble, picks holes well, and can break away. That is what you need! And Rodgers is playing well (as always)!

Redskins:
Man, I feel sorry for Jason Campbell and all the players. He is talented, but the hierarchy and coaching staff as well as overall corporate scheme is just bad. I mean, real bad. Disaster bad! Snyder needs to just let someone else take over football operations, hire a coach that is not in over his head, who is hungry to win, and stop muddling. Let the football people decide who to pick and who to play. Who on earth pays DeAngelo Hall (Angela Falls) over $55 million dollars, when he didn't even ask for a new contract, sucks at football, is a headache on and off the field, and played awful the past two years? And $40 million for Haynesworth? What the hell? Please hire someone to help you!

Eagles:
Did they stop playing after the first half? Vacation? Can't blame them! I wish I would have showed up, they might have let me play the second half! How good is DeSean Jackson? His head may not be on straight, but he is talented. He is about my size and height too.... pretty impressive! Of course, he is slightly faster than me Cool !  McNabb is playing some of the best football I have seen out of him in the past few years and the running game is much more "balanced" (if you can even say that). If Westbrook is out, McCoy seems to be able to quickly take over. That has been their bane!

Vikes:
They finally lost, but it was much closer than the final score reads. It came down to the last few minutes and a tipped Favre pick-6. They should easily have lost 3 games, but such is luck. Baltimore missing a makeable fieldgoal to lose the game, the Greg Lewis catch....  their luck ran out. They haven't been dominating teams, but they have managed to squeak by. Favre was very average and mediocre the first few games, played well and is now back to average. We'll see how they do in Green Bay this weekend. I hope GB can patch together an offensive line. Again.... why BJ Raji? Does he even play?

Cowboys:
Miles Austin
! Yippee! They finally found a WR that can actually catch the ball! This should really open up the running game. Witten won't have to do all the work! Not only does he catch very well, but he can also run afterwards. This guy has a very bright future! And they decided to feature him!

Giants:
They finally lost as well, to a resurgent Kurt Warner and Arizona team. Looks like Beanie Wells figured out how to run in the NFL (finally)! The Cardinals defense was masterful in the second half! The Giants finally found a WR not named Steve Smith to stretch the field in Hakeem Nicks. They love this guy and all reports point to him playing the pivotal No 2 role. They love him in practice and the last two weeks in games. Awesome guy!

Colts and Patriots:
These teams look awesome as usual! Denver plays Indy very late in the year and we already beat the Patriots! These two will be in the playoffs (duh)!

Bills:
They actually won? They beat a pretty downtrodden Carolina team. What is wrong with Carolina? I guess it is true that the worst team in this division ends up finish first every year (Saints) and the best team ends up last (Carolina is almost as bad as Tampa). Awful! Bills look like they may stick with Fitzpatrick... Harvard QB and coach Jarun Harvard Coach. Delhomme is looking real bad, but their alternatives are even worse!

Sanchez:
I was really disturbed watching Sanchez eating a hot dog on the sideline! I didn't care so much that he put mustard on it, and was hiding it in his hand.... I was just disturbed that he was actually eating a hot dog and hanging out. That is bizarre. How can you do that? I have no idea.

Monday Night Football:
I am so glad John Gruden is on Monday Night Football! What a pleasure it is to have an energetic, smart, and meaningful commentator! I love this guy! I wish I could play for him as my coach! Wow!

Browns and Rams:
These two teams are so hard to watch. Especially the Browns. Sheesh! Bill Belicheck has always said that Mangini is not ready to be a headcoach, I am not sure why people keep hiring him. And why can't STL put an entire game together. Every week it seems like they finally get going, then they suddenly fall apart.

Worst?
Browns, Skins, Bucs, Rams in that order!

 

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Sports | Football

NFL Power Rank

by Admin 21. October 2009 21:01

What would happen if you took your teams win loss record, added in your opponent's win loss record, and opponent's opponent's win loss record? Or some combination of these records? Who would be the best team in the NFL based on "Strength of Schedule?" Who has beaten more quality opponents?

I found this posted on a message board on the internet. I am not sure who originally came up with this chart and formula. But I believe it is used in college basketball (RPI). Interesting read:

Okay, maybe that doesn't look so simple. Let's break it down just a little. "WP" is winning percentage, "OWP" is Opponent's Winning Percentage, and "OOWP" is Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage. Gee, thanks for clearing that all up, Jeff. No problem.....

Let's put it this way - RPI is one part how good the team's record is, two parts how good the teams they play are, and one part how good the schedule of the teams they played. Yes, it takes some doing to figure all of that out, but the basic premise is pretty simple. If you have a good record, that counts for something - or 25% of your RPI. Now you look at your schedule, which accounts for 50%. The final 25% is the toughest thing to affect you, which is how solid the record of your opponent's really is, which is judged by who they played.

Now, I like the concept here, but I have some issues with it. First, I don't understand how you can give the same weight to your direct record (WP) and something that a team has zero control over (OOWP). How is that fair? If Team A beats Team B, how is it fair to consider Team B's schedule as worth the same amount as your team's record? I don't.

There are "tweaks" out there that adjust the RPI math some, and I liked some of what they did - doing things such as subtracting a team's record from their opponent's record. This is considered a "modified" record, and has associated a "Modified OWP" (MOWP) and "Modified OOWP" (MOOWP). That makes sense to me - if Denver is 6-0 and their opponents are 16-18, that's not as accurate as taking away those six wins by Denver. If it wasn't for the Broncos, the opponents would actually be 16-12, a winning record and quite a bit different than 16-18. Another tweak is to remove the extra weight to the Opponent's Win Percentage (making WP, OWP and OOWP all equal). I can see this as good or bad, so color me indifferent on that one. 

This is already far too complicated, so I decided to hedge my bets and look at all four answers for team rankings, sort them by the average and let the chart speak to me, so here it is:

Power Rank
Team
Wins
Losses
WIN %
Rk1
Rk2
Rk3
Rk4
AvgRk
1
Denver
6
0
1.000
2
2
3
1
2.00
2
Minnesota
6
0
1.000
1
1
16
2
5.00
3
Cincinnati
4
2
0.667
8
9
1
3
5.25
4
Atlanta
4
1
0.800
5
6
5
7
5.75
5
New Orleans
5
0
1.000
4
4
8
13
7.25
6
New England
4
2
0.667
9
8
11
8
9.00
7
Pittsburgh
4
2
0.667
7
5
22
4
9.50
8
Chicago
3
2
0.600
10
11
13
10
11.00
9
Green Bay
3
2
0.600
11
10
15
9
11.25
10
Baltimore
3
3
0.500
16
14
10
6
11.50
11
Seattle
2
4
0.333
12
13
12
11
12.00
12
San Diego
2
3
0.400
20
20
4
5
12.25
13
Indianapolis
5
0
1.000
3
3
28
19
13.25
15
NY Giants
5
1
0.833
6
7
26
23
15.50
15
Arizona
3
2
0.600
15
18
9
20
15.50
16
Miami
2
3
0.400
21
22
7
14
16.00
18
Cleveland
1
5
0.167
27
27
2
12
17.00
18
NY Jets
3
3
0.500
18
17
17
16
17.00
19
Houston
3
3
0.500
17
15
21
17
17.50
20
Dallas
3
2
0.600
14
16
20
21
17.75
22
Buffalo
2
4
0.333
22
21
23
15
20.25
22
Philadelphia
3
2
0.600
13
12
31
25
20.25
23
Oakland
2
4
0.333
24
26
14
18
20.50
24
Detroit
1
5
0.167
28
29
6
24
21.75
25
San Francisco
3
2
0.600
26
24
19
22
22.75
26
Jacksonville
3
3
0.500
19
19
29
26
23.25
27
Tennessee
0
6
0.000
31
31
18
27
26.75
28
Carolina
2
3
0.400
23
25
30
30
27.00
29
Washington
2
4
0.333
25
23
32
31
27.75
30
Kansas City
1
5
0.167
29
28
27
28
28.00
31
St. Louis
0
6
0.000
30
30
25
29
28.50
32
Tampa Bay
0
6
0.000
32
32
24
32
30.00

Here are the definitions of how I calculated the four rankings:

  • Rk 1 = (1/3) WP + (1/3) OWP + (1/3) OOWP
  • Rk 2 = (1/4) WP + (1/3) OWP + (1/4) OOWP
  • Rk 3 = (1/3) WP + (1/3) MOWP + (1/3) MOOWP
  • Rk 4 = (1/4) WP + (1/2) MOWP + (1/4) MOOWP

With

  • (WP) = Winning Percentage
  • (OWP) = Opponent's Winning Percentage
  • (OOWP) = Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage
  • (MOWP) = Modified Opponent's Winning Percentage
  • (OOWP) = Modified Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage

So what do I see from the chart? There are some interesting things to take note:

  1. According to this, the Super Bowl should be Denver and Minnesota. Of course, they don't play the Super Bowl on Halloween, but the Denver throwbacks are pretty scary. Either way, I'd rather see some other teams in the mix here.
  2. Cincinnati isn't so bad after all. They actually benefit from the Denver loss as they are Top 10 across the board and also above some teams with zero or one losses.
  3. The six AFC playoff teams should be Denver, Cincinnati, New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Diego. Not a bad list, but the Colts should be there - and are just off this list at #13. That's due to Tennessee's terrible record. Look for Indy to push San Diego off this list.
  4. The six NFC playoff teams should be Minnesota, Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago, Green Bay - and Seattle?
  5. The NFC East is getting no respect, but after that 0-3 weekend in Week 6 and Dallas going nowhere fast, they deserve that amount of disrespect. Philadelphia needs to regroup fast and the New York Giants need to beat someone that's good.
  6. The bottom feeders make sense. The worst six teams on the list should all be winless if it wasn't for five games between them, which gave Washington and Carolina two charity wins each and Kansas City their only victory.
  7. Seattle (2-4) and Cleveland (1-5) appear to not be as bad as their records indicate, but I've seen the Browns and I respectfully disagree. I initially thought that the Seahawks were a different team with Matt Hasselbeck, but even that didn't work last week. I'm not buying either team on these middle rankings.
  8. San Francisco is doing fine in the NFC West, but their 3-0 record in the division is topped by losses to Minnesota and Atlanta. Not looking so good for the NFC West winner this season, as they're a likely bet for a one-and-done in the postseason.

So there you have it - my first cut at an NFL BCS/RPI Power Ranking. Feel free to share your thoughts, but I thought that you might be interested in something a little more than a "From the Gut Top 32" ranking.

If I knew the original source of this I would credit the writer. Very interesting indeed!

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NFL Week 5: Broncos, MNF, Indy, NYG, Dolphins, Ravens, Cowboys

by Admin 12. October 2009 22:05

Denver:
Once again, Denver's defense is unbelieveable! The second half adjustments are remarkable. For the past three years, our halftime adjustments were worthless. In fact, most of the time, we allowed teams back into the games in the second halves. Those days are gone. Denver now makes appropriate halftime adjustments and has shut everyone out in the second half of games. No one has scored on Denver in the second half except for the Cincy Bengals in week one with 20 seconds left. Five and Oh! Wow!

Kyle Orton looked freakin awesome! I mean really awesome! The glove is gone and his throwing hand is on fire! He threw 330 yards and two TDs. Not only that, but he was on target, and was zinging and zipping balls into WRs. Eddie Royal was blanketted by the DB and Orton could squeeze it in to him, like Cutler was doing last year! (some of those should have been pass interference penalties) He did this time and time again. He led a 90 yard scoring drive and a 98 yard scoring drive. Can you say, "The Drive?" Orton could throw over 70 yards coming out of high school, so we see know his arm strength and accuracy on display! Now that he has a real coaching staff and QB coach, watch out! I've been telling people here in Chicago for the past few years that Orton was a good quaterback and is not the problem. They are finally agreeing with me!

This team is very special! Josh McDaniels has brought accountability, leadership, emotion, attitude, and pride! Gone are the days of complacency and disorder! He showed his enthusiasm and energy after the game in the stadium thanking the fans and pumping his fists! GOOSE BUMPS! CHILLS! Wow!

The "Wild Horses" formation was something new. It's not exactly the "Wild Cat" that Miami has been using but it sorta is. Orton lines up as a WR and Moreno as the QB. Orton can return to QB position after reading the defense. It's not that brilliant, just no one else has tried that. It was a nice way to surprise NEs defense. It kept them honest and simple. It worked. And we drove all the way downfield. In most Wild Cat situation two running backs are in the backfield and the defense knows it's some sort of run play. With Orton having the option of coming back under center, suddenly the defense no longer "knows" that it has to be a run play. It can be a downfield pass too! Miami let's Ronnie Brown throw ever once in a while, but it's not that same as having your regular QB still on the field. It's brilliant in that regard.

McDaniels said he is going to do somethings that the "NFL has never seen before", I am excited and waitng to see what that is. I think we have seen some of it with the Wild Horses and the other part is the reliance on the "Magic Three" (the three Tight End formation). HoosierTeacher has written on this extesively on my football website. Check out his awesome write up! Can't wait to see what else McDaniels does.

Denver could go undefeated this year! I've been saying this since preseason when I saw our third and fourth string defense hold Arizona's first team offense to zero points through 3 quarters. And scoreless by the end of the game. (If you care for preseason). We held Cincy's explosive offense to a measly 7 points. We beat the Number One offense in Dallas, and shut the Patriots out in the second half! Did you catch that? No score for New England at all in the second half! Wow!

We still play KC two more times, SD twice, Oak once more, Philly, Indy, Pitt and the NYG. Not easy by any means, but doable. Only two teams have ever gone undefeated, so we will see what happenes. Odds are against us. But I am very optimistic. I love analyzing football and am a student of the game. This team has all the players, the schemes, the coaches, as well as the emotional capital to go undefeated. We will see if it happens.

Monday Night Football:
I love the new Monday night crew! John Gruden brings an amazing energy to this crew and you can feel it! It's palpable! He's a great complement to Ron Jaworski, who was already awesome enough! Loving this crew!

Sunday Night Crew:
Much better with Collinsworth. Got tired of Madden. Glad he is gone. He should not be a hall of famer! What'd he do?

Indy:
Manning is amazing once again! 5-0. Wow! Is it possible that neither Indy nor Denver lose and are both undefeated when they meet later this year? That'd be crazy! It's also wishful. The way to beat Indy is to run your big backs against their smaller, faster defense and just wear them out. Tennesee had success when running with LenDale White, but not Johnson. They should have stuck with LenDale. They should stick to LenDale all the time, he wears people down.

Miami:
What a fun team and fun offense to watch! What a awesome Monday night game. Henne versus Sanchez? Big Ten versus USC? Wow! It was a boring game until the fourth quarter when a go ahead touchdown was cored five times (NFL record?). Five teams a touchdown was scored for the lead and the win. Sanchez and Henne were playing lights out and were on target. I have never seen a game between to young quarterbacks like this.

I love Miami's Wild Hog/Wild Cat/Single Wing/Veer offense. This is the most exciting offense to watch. They practice this every day. They work on it. They care about it. It is their bread and butter, not a gimmick. Most teams run a gimmick version of this. They run their single wing/wild cat offense looking to run first. Similar to Urban Meyer's schemes. Run first. Having studied and written extensively on Urban Meyer's spread option offense (read my article), this closely resembles it. They don't pass much out of this attack, but Ronnie did it once to Fasano, and it worked brilliantly. And he is left handed, and rolled out to the left. The Jets defense was shocked and stunned. Then they threw in Pat White, who used to run a spread offense at West Virginia with Rich Rodriguez. They aren't sure how they are going to use this yet, but they are finding ways to use him. Meyer's studied Rich Rodriguez's system.

Why run the Wild Cat? It's a numbers game. Read my article above. Urban Meyer, Rich Rod, Linehan, and Walker figured it out and perfected. Rich Rod loved passing out of the spread. Meyer loves running. It's all about numbers! With two running backs in the backfield you are playing 10 on 11 football. A quarterback in the backfield drops the number of offensive players to only 9. The QB can't block nor distract, he just hands off to the running back. Why waste a player and waste a step? Let their be two amazing athletes in the backfield that can be used to either block, or distract defensive players, or run the ball (or pass?).

The problem with the way Miami is running it, is that defenses know that there will be no downfield passing threats. Unless Henne comes back into the game. Denver is running it with Orton still having the option to come back under center. With Pat White, now Miami can pass downfield AND run the spread read option running attack. Brilliant! And they will win games as well as chew up clock. They can still win their division!

Looks like Miami has learned a lot from Gainesville.

Ravens:
Ray Lewis, Shut Up! Stop complaining about referee calls. Ray Lewis cost his team the game. So did Suggs. Cincy was down and out. They were going to lose. Two penalties on the Ravens defense kept them alie, and they came back to win. Ray Lewis loves to complain about the referees. Shut up and play! I have never seen a bigger whiner! Cry baby? The Ravens need to stop blaming others for their misfortunes. Just own up and shut up! Play the damn game. I hope Cincy wins that division. I have an inert dislike for the Steelers and Ravens. Ray Lewis, what a clown!

Cowboys:
If their receivers could actually catch, they'd be ok. Wow! I ahave never seen more dropped balls. They finally discovered Miles Austin. Feed this guy the ball.

Raiders, Browns, Bills, Rams:
Still can't decide which one is the worst. At least Cleveland won.

Jaguars:
How did they get skunked by the Seahawks? Wow!

Bengals:
Are they "for real" now? 4-1 and winning their division. One bad Roy Williams play away from being undefeated! If only Williams would have played his position, instead of coming down and trying to lay out the WR. What a clown!

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General | Sports | Football

NFL Week 4: Favre, greatest QBs ever, GB, Cutler, Rodgers, Colts, Manning, Cowboys, Houston, McDaniels vs Bilicheck

by Admin 8. October 2009 20:24

Favre:
The man looked amazing this past Monday night against his old team! He's looked very mediocre and average all year, but in the last 5 quarters, he has looked amazing. It all started with the comeback against San Fransisco. He won't have to play like this all year, but he looked awesome! He is the perfect American folk hero right now. Hard to believe that he is now 40 years old! Happy birthday Brett!

Is he the best ever? It really depends on how you define best ever? I wrote an article about this here: FootballTimes.org

If you define it by statistics; Favre and Marino are the greatest ever. If you define it by super bowl appearances and wins; then it's Montana and Elway. The best combination of statistics, wins, super bowls; it's Elway.

Manning is approaching this echelon, he just needs a few more super bowl appearnces, which he will get this year! (my prediction)

No, I don't think Brady deserves to be mentioned among the likes of Elway, Montana, Favre, Kelly, Bradshaw, Aikman, Manning. Brady's Patriots lucked their way into their first super bowl in a post 911 world with the tuck rule. A rule which hasn't been used in 40 years prior to that. Shouldn't Patriots win after terrorists attack us? Then they go on to barely win those three super bowls by field goals (except the one against Philly, but it wasn't outright domination). The Elways. Aikmans, and Montanas destroyed their opponents and carried their teams through the playoffs and into super bowls. Montana did not barely win super bowls, he annihilated people! Brady isn't especially physically gifted or talented, just happen to be in the right place at the right time (sorta like Aikman, but with a lot more luck on his side).

What's your definition QB greatness?

Minny:
How good is their defense? Wow! At every level. The Williams brothers stop the inside at the line, Jared Allen outside eats everyone alive, and the secondary is nothing to laugh out either with Ohio State's Antoine Winfield and decent safeties. Can't wait to see what they will do to St. Louis this weekend! If San Fran put up 44 fantasy points against St. Louis, imagine what Minny can do! (see below for more on St. Louis)

Cutler:
I keep hearing Chicagoans say, "What has he done?" or "He isn't anything special." Just wait folks. Luckily, he hasn't had to go ot and win a game by himself. But if he has to.... he can! You should hope that he never has to. Going into half time tied at 21-21 was scary. Not because it was a tie game. But because Detroit actually scored 21 points! Anytime Detroit scores more than 3 points against your defense, you need to panic. Also, Kevin Smith almost single handedly cost me my fantasy win! Whatever Lovie said to them, it worked! Cutler is still the best QB in the NFL and I still think the Bears will be in the Super Bowl! They just gotta straighten out their defense. And it seems like they are doing that.

Mike MCCarthy: (GB coach)
I am not sure if anyone else noticed, but why was he wearing a winter jacket inside the Metro Dome? Is he insane? Domes are usually kept at a cool 72 degrees. He was wearing an oversized winter coat and was sweating. His forehead was dripping with sweat. Wow man!

GB:
Once again, why oh why did you draft BJ Raji? They need serious help on the offensive line. They should have taken Oher or Munro. This makes no sense. GB defense is playing well, and should keep them in a lot of games. Dom Capers new scheme is more of an attacking style, but they do give up a lot of big plays. If they could only protect Rodgers. Despite running for his life, and being sacked more than anyone else, Rodgers has still played well. Which leads us to our next topic....

Aaron Rdogers:
This kid is good! I mean, really good! He is easily a top 5 QB in the NFL.  He can play ball, he just needs a life insurance policy. Why on earth can't he sit back and worry about finding open WRs.... why does he have to be running for his life all day? This guy is an amazingly talented QB (weep Alex Smith) and it's a shame they didn't address his protection this off season. But hey, they got BJ Raji (and sometimes he is on the field and plays). Jennings need sto focus on catching the football before he becomes the next Braylon. Speaking of which...

Cleveland Browns:
Braylon has the most dropped passes in the NFL. That is inexcusable! Why would a change in sceneray help? Jets fans will be disappointed. I'd much rather have Chancy Stucki (who actually catches balls) than a prima donna player who is fairly worthless, but thinks he is worth something. Something wasn't right in Cleveland. Something happend behind the scenes, and we may never find out. Good riddance. It looks like the Browns now have an offense and are actually scoring points with Derek Anderson at the helm. Not sure why, but it's working. Their offense was actually moving the ball and producing points. That is a surprise. And Mohammed Massquio (spelling?) looks like the new number one WR for Cleveland.

Colts:
Manning is an awesome quarterback! Not as physically gifted or talented as Jay Cutler, but he is the best executioner at the QB position in all of football . (Can you even use execution in this way?) He knows how to execute an offense and exploit defenses like there's no tomorrow. If Cutler can develop Manning's mental gift and aptitude, he would be eliter (more elite?) than anyone else. It's a thing of beauty watching Manning play. Wow! Exploiting the cover two to drop the ball into Garcon's hands with the safety and corner draped over Garcon was an amazing feat. After the elite QBs of the late 80s and early 90s retired, there was a huge dearth at QB and I kept saying to myself, man... where is the next Montana, Marino, Kell, Elway? We have him folks! Manning is awesome!

A lot of us look back and say, "I watched Marino/Elway/Montana play.... he was awesome!" You have a chance to watch Manning play! Don't waste it! If you live in Chicago drive down to Indy to watch him in action at the new Lucas Oil Field! You won't regret it and in 20 years you can say. "I watched Manning!" Priceless!

Cowboys:
This team is not a bad team. They just have run into hungrier and much more talented teams. Yes, the Cowboys are not as talented as the hype machine would like us to think. But they could make more out of their situations. They just don't seem to want it and seem a little laxidaisical about it. This reflects the attitude of their coaching staff. They are too laid back and have no sense of urgency. I don't think they will have a losing record, but they will struggle in their division. Philly and the Giants are much stronger at this time. Someone needs to kick them in the ass! Have you ever seen a WR catch a ball and wander around for 51 yards and have nearly 8 Cowboys miss on tackling him? Granted, Brandon Marshall is an extremely talented WR, but come on! How do you not tackle him? And Newman needs to stop lying about Marshall grabbing his shirt. We aren't dumb. We watched the tape 200 times. Marshall didn't do anything. What he did was make a nice catch. Newman had many opportunities to tackle him afterwards, and didn't. Stop making excuses and man up. Just shut up and play ball!

Houston:
We have a problem! Kubiak seems to follow the Shanahan style of babying your players and taking it easy on them in the off season. They have been plagued by injuries and can never stay healthy. This is what did Shanahan in the last three years. Not working the players hard in summer, so they get groin pulls, turf toe, hamstrings, shoulders, biceps... and all kinds of nagging injuries that ultimately lead to late season collapses. Denver lost 7 running backs to these types of nagging injuries. Lost Champ Bailey to the groin and the list goes on. Kubiak's days are numbered. He has installed as great offense (like Shanny), but if players keep getting hurt, they won't hold up and Kubes will lose his job.

Titans:
No more! Wow..... damn, just run the ball! And why is their secondary giving up so many yards? Holy Toledo!

McDaniels Vs Belicheck:
It's always an advantage for the guy leaving to play his old team. Remember Gruden coaching Tampa Bay against Rich Ganon and Oakland? Tampa Bay's defense knew everything Ganon was going to do, and annhiliated them. I think the same will happen here, except we are dealing with a mastermind chess player. Belicheck will not be as dumb as Oakland, and will have plenty of surprises for his prodigy. McDaniels is an awesome coach! What he has been doing in the off season, through minicaps, OTAs, and so far during the year has been sensational! He is humble, talented beyond belief, and extremely experienced. He has coached defense, special teams, and a record setting offense! He knows what he is doing. Should be an awesome chess match. I still think Denver wins because Denver's talent on defense is far superior to New Englands. NE has too many young guys that are raw. McDaniels knows their weaknesses and will beat them. I'm sure Brady won't be dumb enough (a la Romo) to keep throwing at Champ Bailey. Guess what? Andre Goodman is on the other side. You will see interceptions abound!

Worst teams?
The worst team in football has to be St. Louis, quickly followed by Cleveland. After that I'd say Tampa Bay. These teams are really bad.

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Sports | Football

NFL Week 2: Broncos, Bears, Lions and other observations

by Admin 23. September 2009 21:18

My week 2 update is in! (Yes, I watch all the games, this is a very educated weekly column!)

Denver:
DEFENSE! No 2 in yards allowed! Third in sacks! Fifth in interceptions! Tied for second in takeaways! And NUMBER ONE in Points allowed! The only category that counts! Denver is allowing only 6.5 points per game! Wow! All hail Mike Nolan!

That is a huge change! Our defense for the past few years could not stop anyone! Ever! This is much better and best in the NFL.

The offense looked much better. Offense is fourth overall in yards per game and 8th overall in scoring! Not quite the No 2 ranking we had last year, but everyone is learning a new system and it will get better and better!

Denver is still running a 5-2 defense that is extremely attacking and aggressive. They don't wait to see what offenses are doing! They go after the offense and try to dictate! Awesome!

The idiots in the mass media try to say, "Well, they only played Cincy and Cleveland!" These same idiots are the ones that predicted Denver to win only 3 games! Good luck with that prediction. The idiots in the mass media just repeat a few blurbs they heard. Their job is to incite conflict and get people mad. Their job is not to really know much, but pretend to. "Denver will be lucky to win three games this year after all the off season turmoil."

Next up is Oakland. They had a strong emotional showing against SD in week 1 and nearly beat them. In week 2 they sucked hard, but beat an equally awful KC team. When we win we will be 3-0 and still on top! All you have to do is win your division!

We put up 27 poits in week 2 and the offense looked much better and more fluid. Moreno and Buckhalter looked great. The WRs did their jobs, no serious dropped passes like week 1. Looks like that have adjusted well.

Go Broncos!

Saints:
Still look amazing! Wow! If only I had drafted Brees with my 4th overall pick on my fantasy team, I'd be undefeated! I regret that! They really have something special going on! It really is history in the making. Watch any NO games you can see, because years from now, you can say, "I watched them play." And their defense leads the league in interceptions, they already have 6! That's pretty impressive, considering their pass rush.

Giants:
What wide receivers? So, they clearly have addressed their WR issues and look really good. Anyone that has been following their training camp and preseason should have known this. But of course, the idiot media heads on ESPN never do. (I stopped watching ESPN many years ago..... thank god for NFL network.... I don't even have any other channels). Manningham has been a pleasant surprised. Once again, it's not straight ahead speed that matters, but rather your actual skill set.

Patriots:
Their offensive line has been woeful and it's starting to show. Their defense has lost a lot of players. I don't think they are washed up. Belicheck will have them ready and in a few weeks they will be back in form. For now, it's going to be a rough start.

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Sports | Football

Mohammed S. Alo

Dr. Mohammed Alo
Dr. Mohammed Alo is a Board Certified Internal Medicine Physician practicing in Chicago currently enrolled in a Cardiovascular Medicine Fellowship.