The 2009 Denver Broncos started out 6-0, but went 2-8 down the stretch to end up 8-8. A lot of key injuries affected the team, but the 3 down lineman on defense really is what did in the defense giving up 755 yards on the ground in the last 4 games. The offense never really got going last year. Orton started out playing 3 games with a broken finger, then finished up playing on a messed up ankle. He still had his best year statistically, but they couldn't really get going. Losing two of your best offensive linemen didn't help either. They just played flat after the 6-0 start. 

The 2010 Denver Broncos are vastly improved in every department, and we'll go through them individually starting with the worst departments from last year. The players believe in McDaniels, he believes in them and they have amassed a ton of talent. All of last year's DL starters are now backups, and we've added depth at every level.

Defensive Line:

This was the biggest problem down the stretch. Ron Fields and company are all backups now. Banan, Green, and Williams are the new front 3. The DL got very beat up last year and couldn't stop anyone down the stretch. This has now been addressed and fortified. These 3 new guys are all starter caliber players that have played a lot of 3-4 ball in the NFL. Plus all of last year's starters.... they are the backups. So now we have tremendous depth at the DL. This is a huge upgrade. Probably the biggest upgrade of all of the off season.

Offensive Line:

After Ryan Harris was injured, we didn't win very many games. Weigman and Hamilton are gone, and they were the crux of the OL problems. They were being pushed around like punching bags. To replace them we drafted Center JD Walton and Guard Zane Beadles. We also added depth with Batiste and still have Olsen and Hochstein. If Ryan Clady isn't ready to play LT when the season starts, Batiste can play for him. The OL will be ready! Going up against Williams, Green, McBean, Fields, Baker, and the other nasty DL every day during practice will make them better. The rookie center is getting some help making the line calls from Olsen and Orton, but should be ready by the first pre-season game. Poor OL play is why the offense couldn't stay on the field last year and couldn't run the ball. They couldn't get a good push, nor keep Orton upright. This group has been upgraded and should play better and better as the year wears on with so many new starters. It's gonna be up to Orton to get rid of the ball quickly.

Running Backs:

McDaniels system isn't a run heavy system. Anyone who has watched New England the past few years will quickly realize, that they don't care much who the RB is nor do they care to run much. Maroney, Faulk, Jarvis-Green, Morris, it really doesn't matter. Is Denver better this year? Yes, a lot of young RB talent in camp, and we'll see what happens. Moreno hurt himself last year by holding out, so he couldn't be plugged in to play right away. Buckhalter took many of the starter snaps until Moreno was ready. Both got injured a lot last year and missed games, and that trend seems to continue. Both are injured and being held out of preseason and camp practices. This is going to slow Moreno's development even more. LenDale White was added. So was Justin Fargas, becuase White got injured. A lot of guys in camp will probably be kept on the squad due to all the injures, the two Balls, Toney Baker, and plenty of others. I hope this is not a repeat of 2008 where we go through 9 different starting running backs. I think this group is improved, but will not be a huge part of the offense, other than to close out games and hold on to a lead. Don't get too excited about them. If you are a fantasy owner, I would avoid this backfield like you do the New England backfield. No one you can actually start.

Linebackers:

This is a large group. DJ Williams leads this group as he has nearly every year. Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss will have to step up in light of Dumervil's injury, but it gives them a chance to shine. Last year towards the end of the year they finally "got it" and it shows this year in camp. They will be fine. We still have Haggan, Woodyard, Akin Ayodele, Joe Mays, Greisen, Atkins, Kirlew, Alexander and Reid. A lot of lot of players and depth. You can't replace Doom and his NFL leading 17 sacks, but we have plenty of linebackers. They played well last year despite questionable DL play. It all starts up front and with a vastly improved DL and a defensive coordinator that is on the same page as the head coach, you are going to see something special from this unit.

Wide Receivers:

No one can say losing Brandon Marshall doesn't hurt. It sure does. But we drafted his replacement.... and this kid is much faster. Demaryious Thomas is a 6 foot 3 inch 228 pound monster of a receiver thatruns a 4.3 forty yard dash and can go up and get the ball. He has an amazing vertical jump and can run after the catch like Brandon Marshall. So he is Brandon Marshall in all aspects, but much, much faster. This kid is freak of nature and a monster. Once he is full speed ahead and can play every down, you really gotta watch out. Champ Bailey is impressed by him, and that's saying a lot. He was also the second smartest kid in the NFL combine. You gotta be smart to learn this offense. The smartest player at the combine was Eric Decker, the other WR we drafted. He is also big and can stretch the field with his size. He caught nearly every ball thrown into his vicinity in college and has been doing the same at camp. He is strong and fearless. He goes deep, goes over the middle, he does it all without batting an eye. These two, once they are ready to roll will be an awesome duo. Right now, they are still rookies, still making mistakes and still trying to learn the offense. But if you've watched the camp videos and scrimmages... they are scary good. Other than Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Randy Moss, there aren't many WRs like Thomas. It's no wonder he was the first WR drafted.

The stable of WRs from last year still remain strong. Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Brandon Llyod, McKinely, Willis, and Stokely are still there and just make this group so much stronger. This is probably one of the better groups on this team and is a strength of the team. I don't know who will get more balls or more targets this year (a lot of fantasy owners are asking), but based on camp video and scrimmages, it seems like Royal is getting the majority of targets. We'll see what happens. The philosophy of the offense will be to get the ball to the open man, not force feed a guy like Marshall (like last year) trying to break records. The WR group looks very competent and very confident. I am not worried about them at all.

Quarterbacks:

Orton had his best year ever last year, and that's with two ankle injuries and a broken thumb. His ankle injury from his Chicago days never healed up, and he injured his other one in Denver. He had his best statistical year ever and barley knew the offense. He was thinking a lot and not playing. Now he can just play. He knows before each play what is going to happen and where the reads are. He beat San Diego, Dallas, New England, the 5-0 Giants before finally losing to Baltimore. This year McDaniels has praised Orton saying that, "99 out of 100 or 100 times out of 100 times, he puts us in the right play and goes to the correct player with the ball. He doesn't make mental mistakes. It's a night and day difference from last year." That's high praise! Orton can easily have an even better year than last year. Only 3 wide receivers in 2009 had 200+ yard games. Two of the three, Orton was throwing them the ball; Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton had 3800 passing yards last year (more than Cutler) on two bum legs and a broken finger. Just imagine the possibilities this year when he actually knows what he is doing.

Quinn and Tebow are serviceable backups, much better than last year's back up, Chris Simms. But they are no where on the radar screen in terms of being ready to start. I like this group.

Secondary:

The pass defense was the lone shining star on the team. Even with the poor DL play, they ranked 3rd overall. No one in the NFL has a better secondary! I say that unequivocally. Champ and Goodman. Dawkins and Hill. And the nicklebacks and backups are tremendous as well; Nate Jones, Alphonso Smith, Parrish Cox, Bruton, McBath. What else could you ask for? This is the dream team of defensive backs. The rest of the NFL is very jealous.

Overall:

This team looks really, really good on paper, in camp, and through various videos, news clips, and reports. I would not be surprised if they go 13-3, barring key injuries. That's how good I think they are this year. I haven't been this excited about the Broncos since their run to the second Super Bowl in 1998. The defense has added a tremendous amount of depth and talent and should not have a late season collapse like the last 5 years. The offense has added serious weapons (some of which uncoverable) and now they know what they are doing. With Orton finally being healthy for the first time in 3 years, who knows what could happen. Orton could easily break into the top 10 of QB standings (he was 14th in 2009), and maybe even the top 5 if everything goes according to plan. This team is going to surprise a lot of people and should make the playoffs.

Some bold predictions: (or just wishful thinking)

Orton finished as a top 5 QB.

Pass defense is ranked no 1.

Orton throws for over 4200 yards and close to 30 TDs.

Demaryious Thomas is the rookie of the year.

Eddie Royal finishes with 800 yards and 8 TDs.

Beats San Diego twice.

Finishes 11-5 or better.

First of all, what an amazing match up. It's been a long time since we have had both number one seeds make it to the super bowl (1993, I think). Peyton Manning, son of Archie (the Saints super hero), will take on Payton (Sean) and the Saints in Miami, where Peyton won his other super bowl in 2006 in the rain (the only one where it rained the entire game). 

A ton of story lines exist. Archie Manning was the world's greatest Saint for many years. But they never made the playoffs and never went to a super bowl. Finally, Payton (Sean) comes to town along with Drew Brees, and no one remembers the good old Archie days... it's all about Payton now, Sean, not Manning.

This is going to be an exciting super bowl as their ever was. Since 1997, nearly every super bowl has been more super than the one before. We remember Elway in 1997 beating Favre's Packers in a close one. Which until that point in time, was the best super bowl ever. Then in 1999, the Rams beat the Titans in a really close one. We all remember McNair's pass that was one yard short of a game winning touchdown. Then in 2001 the Patriots barely won by a field goal. And again in 2002. Then we had the McNabb last minute drive, but to no avail. Then 2005 the Jerome Bettis show in another squeaker against Seattle. Then 2006 when Manning beat the Bears. Who can forget Devin Hester's opening kickoff return? Then the 2007 between the 18-0 Patriots and Giants with the miracle catch? And then 2008 with another amazing catch and a drive by the Cardinals to nearly win it.

Wow!

So this should be another great game. Featuring two of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen. I have been saying all year, if you haven't had a chance to watch the Saints play, go back and watch them on NFL.com. Especially, focus on the game against the Patriots, and their two playoff games. In a single playoff run, the Saints may have sent two hall of fame quarterbacks into permanent retirement. Kurt Warner has certainly retired, and Favre has probably played his last game as well.

And we all have seen what Manning can do. He is a coach on the field, and knows exactly what is going on at all times. This is shaping to be a helluva match up!

The Offenses:

The Saints offense is a progression based offense. Very similar to a West Coast Offense. Use the underneath passes to set up the deep balls. Progress through your reads from deep to short (as opposed to short to deep in the West Coast Offense). Find the open guy. This offense is based off the theory that, we have a ton of tall, talented receivers, and QB that can get them the ball, can you cover our fourth and fifth options? Throughout the year, very few defenses had enough talent to cover that fourth or fifth receiver. Brees thrives on going through his progressions, and hitting the guy that is open. This progression based offense takes time to develop.

The Colts offenses is an adjustment based offense. Peyton comes to the line of scrimmage and from a single formation can run 5-7 different plays. He waits for the defense to reveal itself. He can wait till the play clock gets down to 6 seconds. If you move or reveal yourself, he quickly changes the play and snaps the ball with plenty of time. If it is a pass play, the first three seconds after the snap are all Peyton needs to figure out the defense and get rid of the ball to the open guy. He has so many weapons and options, it's crazy what he can do. Most teams will cover Wayne, but he has Clark, Collie, Garcon, Brown available as well. Can your safety cover the 4th receiver? Or did he cheat up and play the run? Manning can adjust on the fly.

When you watch the game Sunday, watch and contrast these two offenses. Manning will get rid of the ball within 3 seconds of the snap. Brees will hang on and go through his progressions and let plays develop. Watch this and see how they each play.

The Defenses: (my favorite part)

The Saints have an aggressive, attacking defense, just ask Warner and Favre. Their base formation is "2 Man Under". They play two zone safeties overtop and man cover the WRs underneath. Their front 7 is very aggressive and can get to the QB. They are energized and playing with aggression under Greg Williams scheme. They will try to come after Manning, but Manning's line can hold them back long enough for Manning to release the ball (which is quick). The cover two on the top needs to come up and cover the TEs and will be too far back for all the complicated short routes that Manning can employ. If they sit back to protect against the long ball, Manning will dink and dunk them to death. They have given up more 10-play plus drives to opposing teams than anyone else in the NFL. The weakness in this defense is their linebackers. They are the weak link. Unless the front 4 can get to Manning, it will be a long day for them. If they start blitzing, they may get to Manning on a few plays, but e will quickl figure out the protections, like he did against the Jets. In order for them to win the battle against Manning they will have to bring a lot of pressure with their front 4 alone, let the LBs sit back and react, while trying to cover the TEs and underneath routes, and use all the DBs to man cover the WRs and protect the back. It's a tall order. One safety should play close to the line and cover the TEs or RB out of the backfield. They should play only one high (one safety deep) and get out of the two high o most downs. They can show two high, but get out when 4 seconds are left on the play clock. They need to disguise their coverage for as long as possible.

The Colts defense is also a Cover 2 base, but they play zone underneath. They also let the middle linebacker drop into deep third coverage in your basic Tampa 2 coverage. They are a read and react defense. They don't like exotic blitzing. They want to beat you with Freeny and Mathis and just the front 4. They usually can, against most teams. Larry Coyer, the defensive coordinator, has been able to get more out of these guys. They are a very fast defense! That's also why they can afford to read and react. This matches up very well against the Saints fast offense and weapons. The best way for the Saints to neutralize this defense is to run right at them with the bigger backs, Bell and Thomas, and try and wear out the defense. If they try to get fancy with screens and tosses to Bush to the outside (or run stretch runs) they will be losing yardage, not gaining. The Colts defense is a tough match up for the Saints. Drew Brees likes to go through progressions and take his time, and that gives the front 4 time to get to him. Freeny and Mathis (or whoever replaces Freeny) will have more time and can get to Brees. The DBs can cover the WRs long enough and have enough speed and manpower to keep Brees in check more times than not. The Saints only way to beat this defense is to run right at them straight on. Brees can dink and dunk too, but the Colts want that. They have speed and discipline and will give you the 3 yard gain.

Watch these defenses! You'll see the aggressive Saints defense and then contrast that to the read and react Colts defense. Should be an awesome match up to watch and see how each defense is going to attack the other offense. An awesome day for people who enjoy defense! This is the part I can't wait to see!

Outcome?

Ultimately, I think Manning will pull it off. I don't think it's going to be a high scoring 40-40 game. Maybe one team will get to 30. I expect the score to be 28-24 or 31-24. I think Manning's quick read and release will paralyze the Saints defense and render them ineffective (at least the front 7). It's gonna be up to the back 4 to try and contain this offense, and they can't. They don't have the speed or intelligence. They may make a few plays here and there, but Manning will come out on top.

The Saints offense plays right into the Colts defense's strengths. They like plays to develop and take long. Brees likes to go through progressions (unless they change this), and that doesn't bode well against a fast, read and react defense. The Saints defense is easy to dissect for Manning. If they blitz, let them come and pass it to the vacated location. If they don't blitz, get rid of the ball quickly to the most open WR. If they play 2 high and sit back, run at them. If they come up, hit them deeper. Should be exciting to watch. What if the Saints defense does get to Manning a few times? He will figure it out and adjust, like he did against the Jets.

Final score?

Colts 28-24.

What's wrong with the Bears?

It's all about teaching and coaching. It's not the talent that is the problem. At the NFL level, you have the world's top 1800 athletes. They are faster, quicker, stronger than any other athletes anywhere. There is no comparison. Not even NBA players can match the vertical jumps that NFL players can jump. NFL players are the most explosive, most powerful, fastest players anywhere.

It's all about coaching. How does a team like Miami and Atlanta go from awful in 2007, to winning their divisions and going to the playoffs in 2008?

The Bears need coaching and teaching in the worst way possible. It's not enough to assemble great athletes. You have to train them, teach them, and put them in position to use their God-given talent. Kyle Orton said in September 2009 that he has learned more in the last 4 months in Denver than he has his last 4 years with the Bears. That is sad. Players need coaching and teachers. Mike Nolan loves teaching and he has turned Denver's defense from worst to first in one year. McDaniels and Nolan stress the ability to teach on their staffs. That's what Chicago needs.

If you watch the offense, the defense, the special teams.... Chicago lacks discipline, loses gap control, is in the wrong gap, the WR, OL, and QB are never on the same page. They aren't taking advantages of defenses weaknesses, they look pedestrian. They need teaching, scheming and coaching!

Urlacher!
Just shut up, Brian! Stop criticizing Jay Cutler. Urlacher should be in the film room teaching the rookie linebackers and defensive players what to look for and how to break down film. Criticizing the QB play at this time serves no purpose. Just shut up!

Broncos
The Broncos are back to playing Bronco football like they were the first few weeks of the season. The Defense is back. This team can't be beat if they play like that. Denver has already beaten nearly all the current division leaders and playoff teams (Cincy, Dallas, New England, San Diego). Orton staying healthy is huge, and they need him in every way. When he came back into the San Diego game, he drove down the field with two pass plays and had us in position to comeback. His two passes to Marshall against Washington were priceless (as were the catches). Denver's remaining schedule includes KC twice, Oak, Indy and Philly. Certainly winnable games. Will we beat Indy in Denver? I think so, it may end up being Indy's only loss. 

Saints
We are watching something magnificent! I mean magical. You only see this type of play once or twice per decade. The San Francisco 49ers did this in the late 80s and once with Steve Young in the 90s, the Ram's Greatest Show on Turf did this in 1999-2000, the 2007 Patriots, and now the 2009 Saints. Extremely impressive offense, with a defense that leads the league in takeaways. And they are doing it with authority! This defense is aggressive and punishing. They punished Wes Welker on those two catches. TWO! He had only two catches!

They lost a lot of starters in the secondary, but still managed to find guys to play and fill in (similar to what we used to pride new england for). Greg Williams on Defense and Sean Payton on offense, with Drew Brees and a bunch of 6th round pick WRs is amazingly electric! We are a witness to history. This is the best team in the NFL and will be in the Super Bowl.

Playoff Picture
In the NFC it looks like the Vikings and Saints will be the top two teams. The rest are pretty bad. There s huge disparity between the halves and havenots. The Saints are very difficult to beat at home and that Superdome is electric, loud, and tough to play in. The rest of the teams in the NFC are second fiddle. Teams with a decent chance are Arizona and Dallas if they can get a home game and things go their way. Philly is really the only other NFC team that looks playoff worthy.

The AFC is more muddy. There isn't such huge separation between the good and the bad. There are a lot of good teams. The AFC championship will likely end up being between Indy and Cincy. Other strong contenders include New England, Denver, and San Diego. (Note: Denver has beaten all of them). Anything can happen with the playoffs. All you need is a chance. Any of these teams can end up being the AFC representative in the Super Bowl, it just depends on what happens with the playoffs. Other teams that can still make it with a strong push include Pitt and Baltimore,. But it's probably unlikely that three teams make it from the AFC North. Go Broncos!

The Broncos did not play this week.... and are still undefeated. They play Baltimore at Baltimore in week 8. It's a bad week to be a Baltimore fan!

Saints:
The Saints defense against the run, although ranked 4th overall, is awful when the Saints are tied or still at 0-0. They give up over 5 yards per carry when tied. Miami's gameplan of coming out running hard was spectacular and brilliant, as I expected. I have been telling people all week to watch out for the ground game Miami is bringing. Miami was up 24-3 at one point and could have won the game. Instead, they allowed Henne to throw two INTs that were returned for TDs. That was a deviation from the run-run-run-some-more gameplan. Stick to running! They are still playing well and are the only undfeated NFC team left, with Minny and NY losing. They really missed LT Jammal Brown on their O-Line. Brees was seeing more pressure than usual.

Bears:
It's not just Jay Cutler's fault. The Bear's problems run deeper. They can still turn it around, but it is an institutional and mindset dilemma. No urgency, no immediacy. Very laxidasical. They need to get motivated and get excited! Lovie is way to calm and relaxed. He needs to fire them up. The defense will improve as the players gel together and mesh together. For now, you are gonna have some bad games, and they were playing the Bengals! Cincy is on a tear, and I can't believe what I was watching. Palmer and his crew marched up and down the field at will. Total will! the Bear's didn't even exist! That is probably the worst the Bears have played all year. You can only go up!

Cutler needs to start taking blame for his idiotic decisions. The cute responses are not going to "cut it" for long. Come on, Jay!

Bengals:
Wow! Wow! And wow! These guy are red hot and unbelievably good! I don't want to face them ever again! Don't get me wrong, Denver can still beat them and rattle Palmer.... I just think it'll be a lot harder!

Packers:
I love watching Ryan Grant run and Rodgers throw well despite an awful offensive line. Grant runs with authority and deciciveness. He just picks a hole, puts his toe in the turf, and runs upfield. I can appreciate a good runner. Whenever you play backyard football, or in various leagues, you see teams find some random big kid and throw him in at RB and think he will do well because he is big and fast. That doesn't always work out. He gets stuck in the backfield, can't get to the hole, fumbles on first contact. You can't just throw in some random "good looking athlete" type of guy and think he will do well. Running is an art, and you have to know how to do it! Grant runs well, doesn't fumble, picks holes well, and can break away. That is what you need! And Rodgers is playing well (as always)!

Redskins:
Man, I feel sorry for Jason Campbell and all the players. He is talented, but the hierarchy and coaching staff as well as overall corporate scheme is just bad. I mean, real bad. Disaster bad! Snyder needs to just let someone else take over football operations, hire a coach that is not in over his head, who is hungry to win, and stop muddling. Let the football people decide who to pick and who to play. Who on earth pays DeAngelo Hall (Angela Falls) over $55 million dollars, when he didn't even ask for a new contract, sucks at football, is a headache on and off the field, and played awful the past two years? And $40 million for Haynesworth? What the hell? Please hire someone to help you!

Eagles:
Did they stop playing after the first half? Vacation? Can't blame them! I wish I would have showed up, they might have let me play the second half! How good is DeSean Jackson? His head may not be on straight, but he is talented. He is about my size and height too.... pretty impressive! Of course, he is slightly faster than me  !  McNabb is playing some of the best football I have seen out of him in the past few years and the running game is much more "balanced" (if you can even say that). If Westbrook is out, McCoy seems to be able to quickly take over. That has been their bane!

Vikes:
They finally lost, but it was much closer than the final score reads. It came down to the last few minutes and a tipped Favre pick-6. They should easily have lost 3 games, but such is luck. Baltimore missing a makeable fieldgoal to lose the game, the Greg Lewis catch....  their luck ran out. They haven't been dominating teams, but they have managed to squeak by. Favre was very average and mediocre the first few games, played well and is now back to average. We'll see how they do in Green Bay this weekend. I hope GB can patch together an offensive line. Again.... why BJ Raji? Does he even play?

Cowboys:
Miles Austin! Yippee! They finally found a WR that can actually catch the ball! This should really open up the running game. Witten won't have to do all the work! Not only does he catch very well, but he can also run afterwards. This guy has a very bright future! And they decided to feature him!

Giants:
They finally lost as well, to a resurgent Kurt Warner and Arizona team. Looks like Beanie Wells figured out how to run in the NFL (finally)! The Cardinals defense was masterful in the second half! The Giants finally found a WR not named Steve Smith to stretch the field in Hakeem Nicks. They love this guy and all reports point to him playing the pivotal No 2 role. They love him in practice and the last two weeks in games. Awesome guy!

Colts and Patriots:
These teams look awesome as usual! Denver plays Indy very late in the year and we already beat the Patriots! These two will be in the playoffs (duh)!

Bills:
They actually won? They beat a pretty downtrodden Carolina team. What is wrong with Carolina? I guess it is true that the worst team in this division ends up finish first every year (Saints) and the best team ends up last (Carolina is almost as bad as Tampa). Awful! Bills look like they may stick with Fitzpatrick... Harvard QB and coach Jarun Harvard Coach. Delhomme is looking real bad, but their alternatives are even worse!

Sanchez:
I was really disturbed watching Sanchez eating a hot dog on the sideline! I didn't care so much that he put mustard on it, and was hiding it in his hand.... I was just disturbed that he was actually eating a hot dog and hanging out. That is bizarre. How can you do that? I have no idea.

Monday Night Football:
I am so glad John Gruden is on Monday Night Football! What a pleasure it is to have an energetic, smart, and meaningful commentator! I love this guy! I wish I could play for him as my coach! Wow!

Browns and Rams:
These two teams are so hard to watch. Especially the Browns. Sheesh! Bill Belicheck has always said that Mangini is not ready to be a headcoach, I am not sure why people keep hiring him. And why can't STL put an entire game together. Every week it seems like they finally get going, then they suddenly fall apart.

Worst?
Browns, Skins, Bucs, Rams in that order!

What would happen if you took your teams win loss record, added in your opponent's win loss record, and opponent's opponent's win loss record? Or some combination of these records? Who would be the best team in the NFL based on "Strength of Schedule?" Who has beaten more quality opponents?

I found this posted on a message board on the internet. I am not sure who originally came up with this chart and formula. But I believe it is used in college basketball (RPI). Interesting read:

Okay, maybe that doesn't look so simple. Let's break it down just a little. "WP" is winning percentage, "OWP" is Opponent's Winning Percentage, and "OOWP" is Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage. Gee, thanks for clearing that all up, Jeff. No problem.....

Let's put it this way - RPI is one part how good the team's record is, two parts how good the teams they play are, and one part how good the schedule of the teams they played. Yes, it takes some doing to figure all of that out, but the basic premise is pretty simple. If you have a good record, that counts for something - or 25% of your RPI. Now you look at your schedule, which accounts for 50%. The final 25% is the toughest thing to affect you, which is how solid the record of your opponent's really is, which is judged by who they played.

Now, I like the concept here, but I have some issues with it. First, I don't understand how you can give the same weight to your direct record (WP) and something that a team has zero control over (OOWP). How is that fair? If Team A beats Team B, how is it fair to consider Team B's schedule as worth the same amount as your team's record? I don't.

There are "tweaks" out there that adjust the RPI math some, and I liked some of what they did - doing things such as subtracting a team's record from their opponent's record. This is considered a "modified" record, and has associated a "Modified OWP" (MOWP) and "Modified OOWP" (MOOWP). That makes sense to me - if Denver is 6-0 and their opponents are 16-18, that's not as accurate as taking away those six wins by Denver. If it wasn't for the Broncos, the opponents would actually be 16-12, a winning record and quite a bit different than 16-18. Another tweak is to remove the extra weight to the Opponent's Win Percentage (making WP, OWP and OOWP all equal). I can see this as good or bad, so color me indifferent on that one. 

This is already far too complicated, so I decided to hedge my bets and look at all four answers for team rankings, sort them by the average and let the chart speak to me, so here it is:

Here are the definitions of how I calculated the four rankings:

• Rk 1 = (1/3) WP + (1/3) OWP + (1/3) OOWP
• Rk 2 = (1/4) WP + (1/3) OWP + (1/4) OOWP
• Rk 3 = (1/3) WP + (1/3) MOWP + (1/3) MOOWP
• Rk 4 = (1/4) WP + (1/2) MOWP + (1/4) MOOWP

With

• (WP) = Winning Percentage
• (OWP) = Opponent's Winning Percentage
• (OOWP) = Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage
• (MOWP) = Modified Opponent's Winning Percentage
• (OOWP) = Modified Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage

So what do I see from the chart? There are some interesting things to take note:

1. According to this, the Super Bowl should be Denver and Minnesota. Of course, they don't play the Super Bowl on Halloween, but the Denver throwbacks are pretty scary. Either way, I'd rather see some other teams in the mix here.
2. Cincinnati isn't so bad after all. They actually benefit from the Denver loss as they are Top 10 across the board and also above some teams with zero or one losses.
3. The six AFC playoff teams should be Denver, Cincinnati, New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Diego. Not a bad list, but the Colts should be there - and are just off this list at #13. That's due to Tennessee's terrible record. Look for Indy to push San Diego off this list.
4. The six NFC playoff teams should be Minnesota, Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago, Green Bay - and Seattle?
5. The NFC East is getting no respect, but after that 0-3 weekend in Week 6 and Dallas going nowhere fast, they deserve that amount of disrespect. Philadelphia needs to regroup fast and the New York Giants need to beat someone that's good.
6. The bottom feeders make sense. The worst six teams on the list should all be winless if it wasn't for five games between them, which gave Washington and Carolina two charity wins each and Kansas City their only victory.
7. Seattle (2-4) and Cleveland (1-5) appear to not be as bad as their records indicate, but I've seen the Browns and I respectfully disagree. I initially thought that the Seahawks were a different team with Matt Hasselbeck, but even that didn't work last week. I'm not buying either team on these middle rankings.
8. San Francisco is doing fine in the NFC West, but their 3-0 record in the division is topped by losses to Minnesota and Atlanta. Not looking so good for the NFC West winner this season, as they're a likely bet for a one-and-done in the postseason.

So there you have it - my first cut at an NFL BCS/RPI Power Ranking. Feel free to share your thoughts, but I thought that you might be interested in something a little more than a "From the Gut Top 32" ranking.

If I knew the original source of this I would credit the writer. Very interesting indeed!

Broncos:
For only the second time in my life, the Denver Broncos are 6-0. Yep! Six and Oh! Tremendous defense, and a top 10 offense! Last time they started 6-0, we won the Super Bowl! (1998) We still have only allowed one touchdown all year in the second half of games. Holding teams to no points or merely a field goal. Beating San Dieg in San Diego was special. Much more gratifying than the New England win. The NE win was a much more nailbiting close game that was won in overtime, but this was more special. Nothing has bothered me more the past 3 years than losing (by a ton) to San Diego. Especially when you are up 35 to 17 by half time, and they still come back to win. Especially with their annoying mouth of a quarterback! Especially with the irritating lil running back that broke an NFL record against us and their diminutive linebackers that talk smack.

Mike Nolan brought tons of presure. The second half adjustments were epic! Like I have said all year, our half time adjustments are the best there is! In years past, Shanahan and company would make adjustments, but they'd be awful. It was more of a gimmick. Our DCs were amatuers and were doing on the job training. We always gave up more points in the second half. That was painful and always hurt me! When you bring together the greatest minds on offense and defense, you can't help but succeed. You put time and effort into coaching (and especially teaching) you can't help but succeed. All of our coaches are teachers first and love teaching! That's why our players are so well prepared.

Coach McDaniels always stresses in meetings being more prepared than the opponent. And he focuses on being more prepared. He believes that his players are always more prepared than the competition, and that's why they can only succeed.

Can anyone beat this team?
That's what I asked the medical students today at morning report. No one had a good answer.

Remaining schedule of supposedly "difficult" games: Pit, Philly, Indy, Bal.

Indy is beatable. Run right at their smaller defensive players and pound them to oblivian.

Pitt is easy to rattle. Ben holds on to the ball far too long, and our blitzers and fast rushers will take him out. Their run game will be stimied by our awesome run defense.

Baltimore's rookie QB will not know what hit him. Their lack of WRs will hurt. And our defense will contain their RBs.

Philly.... just look at what Oakland did to them.

The rest of our games are against KC twice, another Oak (in Denver), and one more SD (in Denver).

This team can seriously go undefeated! Wow!

The only team in the NFL right now that could beat Denver, is probably the Saints. We don't play them in the regular season, but they have an excellent passig game, a complementary running game, as well as a decent defense. It'd be close. But I know that Nolan and McD would have our guys more prepared than them and we would win! See you in the super bowl! Speaking of the Saints...

Saints:
Drew Brees and the Saints have just announced that they are the number one team in the NFC! They beat the number one defense in the NFL (yards allowed). Not just beat them... but beat them down! They have their awesome Aerial Assualt as well as a ground game. Greg Williams has installed an amazing defense and the players needed to run it.

Sunday Night:
Tony Dungy is still sporting the deer in the headlights look! Is he just uncomfortable or what? Scary!

The Undefeateds:
All we have left is Denver, Minnesota, Indy, Saints. Two AFC, two NFC! Of all of these the most vulnerable and weakest is probably Minny. How lucky have they been the last 3 weeks? The miracle pass from Favre to Lewis, the missed field goal for the win? Wow! They will probably be the first to lose. Indy's schedule is cake walk from here on out. The Saints have a bit of a tougher schedule. Should be interesting to see what happens when Indy comes to Denver. Someone has to lose.

Bears:
Stop complaining! Cutler put them in position to win and they could have pulled it off. I have been telling Bears fans that Cutler can win you games if he has to. He had to. You could argue that he cost them the game with his interceptions, or you could argue Forte cost them the game. It's one game and the Minny bubble will burst soon! If they don't succeed this year with a "franchise quarterback" (whatever that means), Lovie and his crew may be out of a job in January. Shanahan anyone? Do you guys want Orton back?

Brady:
Wow! Almost 60 points? Are you kidding me? He played through 3 quarters until they sat him. Why didn't they keep him in and just "execute the offense?" I guess he was upset after Denver held him scoreless in the second half last week! Denver held them scoreless? Wow!

Philly:
How do you lose to Oakland? Maybe Oakland now got their act together. (Probably not)

Seattle:
Up, down, up, down. Score 44? Then get destroyed by Arizona at home? This conference is going to come down to San Fran and Arizona (whose offense has finally started working).

Bills Jets:
Both teams were trying really hard not to win! Finally, one of them won. Phew!

Favre:
The man looked amazing this past Monday night against his old team! He's looked very mediocre and average all year, but in the last 5 quarters, he has looked amazing. It all started with the comeback against San Fransisco. He won't have to play like this all year, but he looked awesome! He is the perfect American folk hero right now. Hard to believe that he is now 40 years old! Happy birthday Brett!

Is he the best ever? It really depends on how you define best ever? I wrote an article about this here: FootballTimes.org

If you define it by statistics; Favre and Marino are the greatest ever. If you define it by super bowl appearances and wins; then it's Montana and Elway. The best combination of statistics, wins, super bowls; it's Elway.

Manning is approaching this echelon, he just needs a few more super bowl appearnces, which he will get this year! (my prediction)

No, I don't think Brady deserves to be mentioned among the likes of Elway, Montana, Favre, Kelly, Bradshaw, Aikman, Manning. Brady's Patriots lucked their way into their first super bowl in a post 911 world with the tuck rule. A rule which hasn't been used in 40 years prior to that. Shouldn't Patriots win after terrorists attack us? Then they go on to barely win those three super bowls by field goals (except the one against Philly, but it wasn't outright domination). The Elways. Aikmans, and Montanas destroyed their opponents and carried their teams through the playoffs and into super bowls. Montana did not barely win super bowls, he annihilated people! Brady isn't especially physically gifted or talented, just happen to be in the right place at the right time (sorta like Aikman, but with a lot more luck on his side).

What's your definition QB greatness?

Minny:
How good is their defense? Wow! At every level. The Williams brothers stop the inside at the line, Jared Allen outside eats everyone alive, and the secondary is nothing to laugh out either with Ohio State's Antoine Winfield and decent safeties. Can't wait to see what they will do to St. Louis this weekend! If San Fran put up 44 fantasy points against St. Louis, imagine what Minny can do! (see below for more on St. Louis)

Cutler:
I keep hearing Chicagoans say, "What has he done?" or "He isn't anything special." Just wait folks. Luckily, he hasn't had to go ot and win a game by himself. But if he has to.... he can! You should hope that he never has to. Going into half time tied at 21-21 was scary. Not because it was a tie game. But because Detroit actually scored 21 points! Anytime Detroit scores more than 3 points against your defense, you need to panic. Also, Kevin Smith almost single handedly cost me my fantasy win! Whatever Lovie said to them, it worked! Cutler is still the best QB in the NFL and I still think the Bears will be in the Super Bowl! They just gotta straighten out their defense. And it seems like they are doing that.

Mike MCCarthy: (GB coach)
I am not sure if anyone else noticed, but why was he wearing a winter jacket inside the Metro Dome? Is he insane? Domes are usually kept at a cool 72 degrees. He was wearing an oversized winter coat and was sweating. His forehead was dripping with sweat. Wow man!

GB:
Once again, why oh why did you draft BJ Raji? They need serious help on the offensive line. They should have taken Oher or Munro. This makes no sense. GB defense is playing well, and should keep them in a lot of games. Dom Capers new scheme is more of an attacking style, but they do give up a lot of big plays. If they could only protect Rodgers. Despite running for his life, and being sacked more than anyone else, Rodgers has still played well. Which leads us to our next topic....

Aaron Rdogers:
This kid is good! I mean, really good! He is easily a top 5 QB in the NFL.  He can play ball, he just needs a life insurance policy. Why on earth can't he sit back and worry about finding open WRs.... why does he have to be running for his life all day? This guy is an amazingly talented QB (weep Alex Smith) and it's a shame they didn't address his protection this off season. But hey, they got BJ Raji (and sometimes he is on the field and plays). Jennings need sto focus on catching the football before he becomes the next Braylon. Speaking of which...

Cleveland Browns:
Braylon has the most dropped passes in the NFL. That is inexcusable! Why would a change in sceneray help? Jets fans will be disappointed. I'd much rather have Chancy Stucki (who actually catches balls) than a prima donna player who is fairly worthless, but thinks he is worth something. Something wasn't right in Cleveland. Something happend behind the scenes, and we may never find out. Good riddance. It looks like the Browns now have an offense and are actually scoring points with Derek Anderson at the helm. Not sure why, but it's working. Their offense was actually moving the ball and producing points. That is a surprise. And Mohammed Massquio (spelling?) looks like the new number one WR for Cleveland.

Colts:
Manning is an awesome quarterback! Not as physically gifted or talented as Jay Cutler, but he is the best executioner at the QB position in all of football . (Can you even use execution in this way?) He knows how to execute an offense and exploit defenses like there's no tomorrow. If Cutler can develop Manning's mental gift and aptitude, he would be eliter (more elite?) than anyone else. It's a thing of beauty watching Manning play. Wow! Exploiting the cover two to drop the ball into Garcon's hands with the safety and corner draped over Garcon was an amazing feat. After the elite QBs of the late 80s and early 90s retired, there was a huge dearth at QB and I kept saying to myself, man... where is the next Montana, Marino, Kell, Elway? We have him folks! Manning is awesome!

A lot of us look back and say, "I watched Marino/Elway/Montana play.... he was awesome!" You have a chance to watch Manning play! Don't waste it! If you live in Chicago drive down to Indy to watch him in action at the new Lucas Oil Field! You won't regret it and in 20 years you can say. "I watched Manning!" Priceless!

Cowboys:
This team is not a bad team. They just have run into hungrier and much more talented teams. Yes, the Cowboys are not as talented as the hype machine would like us to think. But they could make more out of their situations. They just don't seem to want it and seem a little laxidaisical about it. This reflects the attitude of their coaching staff. They are too laid back and have no sense of urgency. I don't think they will have a losing record, but they will struggle in their division. Philly and the Giants are much stronger at this time. Someone needs to kick them in the ass! Have you ever seen a WR catch a ball and wander around for 51 yards and have nearly 8 Cowboys miss on tackling him? Granted, Brandon Marshall is an extremely talented WR, but come on! How do you not tackle him? And Newman needs to stop lying about Marshall grabbing his shirt. We aren't dumb. We watched the tape 200 times. Marshall didn't do anything. What he did was make a nice catch. Newman had many opportunities to tackle him afterwards, and didn't. Stop making excuses and man up. Just shut up and play ball!

Houston:
We have a problem! Kubiak seems to follow the Shanahan style of babying your players and taking it easy on them in the off season. They have been plagued by injuries and can never stay healthy. This is what did Shanahan in the last three years. Not working the players hard in summer, so they get groin pulls, turf toe, hamstrings, shoulders, biceps... and all kinds of nagging injuries that ultimately lead to late season collapses. Denver lost 7 running backs to these types of nagging injuries. Lost Champ Bailey to the groin and the list goes on. Kubiak's days are numbered. He has installed as great offense (like Shanny), but if players keep getting hurt, they won't hold up and Kubes will lose his job.

Titans:
No more! Wow..... damn, just run the ball! And why is their secondary giving up so many yards? Holy Toledo!

McDaniels Vs Belicheck:
It's always an advantage for the guy leaving to play his old team. Remember Gruden coaching Tampa Bay against Rich Ganon and Oakland? Tampa Bay's defense knew everything Ganon was going to do, and annhiliated them. I think the same will happen here, except we are dealing with a mastermind chess player. Belicheck will not be as dumb as Oakland, and will have plenty of surprises for his prodigy. McDaniels is an awesome coach! What he has been doing in the off season, through minicaps, OTAs, and so far during the year has been sensational! He is humble, talented beyond belief, and extremely experienced. He has coached defense, special teams, and a record setting offense! He knows what he is doing. Should be an awesome chess match. I still think Denver wins because Denver's talent on defense is far superior to New Englands. NE has too many young guys that are raw. McDaniels knows their weaknesses and will beat them. I'm sure Brady won't be dumb enough (a la Romo) to keep throwing at Champ Bailey. Guess what? Andre Goodman is on the other side. You will see interceptions abound!

Worst teams?
The worst team in football has to be St. Louis, quickly followed by Cleveland. After that I'd say Tampa Bay. These teams are really bad.

Denver's defense has set an all time record allowing only 26 points through four games. The next closest to that was a San Fransico team that only allowed 53 points through 4 games. Even if you double the amount of points allowed, Denver still has the best defense EVER in points allowed!

In other news, Brandon Marshall is uncoverable! Shanahan said this about him last year, and Marshall has proven this once again. UNCOVERABLE!

If you've watched Denver for the past  three seasons, you know the agony of not being able to stop anyone. Our defense now has a fighting chance and is stopping everyone. How many 41-38 shootouts did we have with Indy? How many 39-38 shootouts with San Diego? That era is over. Let the era of defense begin.

We held the number one rushing offense (Dallas) to only 74 yards of rushing offense. Wow! And with Cincy being 3-1 now....  how awesome was that win? Holding them to only 7 points.

I have been saying since preseason, Denver's defense is going to keep us in a lot of games, and we will win a lot of them. Can't be better than 4-0 at this point in time, so I'll take it. I don't think Denver will lose this year, despite an upcoming ten game stretch that is brutal!

Denver will win the AFC West, handidly this year!

Couldn't watch all the games this weekend. I have them saved and will go through them throughout the week though. It was definetly an interesting week, lots of great games and great matchups. Enjoy the update!

Denver:
Looked good once again! Of course people are already starting to say, "Who have they played?". We can only play the teams on our schedule. We played Cincy (who just beat the defending Super Bowl champs), the Browns (yes, they are very bad), and Oakland. When you beat three NFL teams, you are doing pretty well. No game in the NFL is cake walk, and anyone can win on any given Sunday. If Cincy is such a bad team, how come they beat Green Bay and Pittsburgh? We held them scoreless for 59 minutes and 20 seconds.

Our offense finally had a turnover, someone fumbled the ball. But we quickly got it back after forcing a fumble ourselves. Orton is playing mistake free football and distributing the ball well. We are marching up and down the field taking tons of time off the clock. Our offense isn't sputtering like we did in week one and the glove and stitches in his throwing finger are gone! I see our offense getting better and more in rhythm every week. I like what I see. It's not the West Coast offense that Shanahan had with the timing short routes, it's a lot of underneath drag and crossing routes, hitting WRs in stride and letting them make plays after the catch.

Denver's defense is allowing 5.3 points per game. That is as good as it gets! That's number one in points allowed. That's all that matters! Mike Nolan has this defense playing very well and McDaniels and Xanders have brought in the right personnel. In fact, over 50% of our players are new to Denver. Plus we have 8 takeaways.

Our front seven is generating tremendous pressure and out secondary is getting interceptions. We have the best secondary in the business (Hill, Dawkins, Champ, and Davis).

To all the media clowns, and non-media clowns who don't understand football: In a few weeks you can't make any excuses. Denver goes on a stretch of games that is "difficult" by media clown standards. We play Dallas, New England, Philly, NY Giants, Washington, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis. Is that good enough? We'll see what everyone is saying after we demolish Dallas at Mile High next week.

Florida:
Before we get to the other NFL games, anyone watch Florida? Wow! Urban Meyer has always intrigued me, I wrote a very lengthy article on his new offense and have always been intrigued by all Ohio coaches that move on and make it big (Belicheck, Meyer, McDaniels, Stoops, Brown, Miles, Pinkel, Pelini, Pete Carroll, Shula, Knoll, Schembechler, Hayes, Parseghian, etc). Read my Urban Meyer article here. What Meyer is doing at Florida is very exciting and amazing. Can anyone stop these guys?

Saints:
The finally came down to earth in Buffalo. Buffalo found ways to pressure Brees and they had to resort to running the ball. Imagine that! No passing TDs? Wow!

Lions:
They won, as I predicted last week. Washington is in disarray. Strong work Lions! They actually looked crisp and looked like they belonged.

Favre:
Spent the entire game looking ordinary and mediocre, but then on that last drive, he turned it on. That was one of the more miraculous finishes I have seen in a while. The catch was far more impressive than the throw. Favre just launched it and it could have ended up being one of his usual interceptions. But, Greg Lewis not only caught the ball, he demonstrated full possession, and came down with two feet in bounds. Wow!

Tennessee:
Starting out 0-3 has to be tough for the team with the best record last year. They have played some tough competition, but they need to get it together.

Cincy, Bal, and Pitt:
So Baltimore is undfeated. Pitt lost to the Bears and Cincy. Cincy beat GB and Pitt, but lost to Denver. Where does that leave the AFC North? Is Baltimore the best team? Cincy has a top 10 defense and a top 10 offense. They will probably win this division when it's all said and done. But Bal also has a top defense and offense and with the injury to Troy Palomalu... who wins this division? It's gonna be a battle and little things may determine who wins. It's pretty obvious now that Denver's shut out a damn good Cincy team. Their offense is explosive and doing a good job. Denver let them catch ball's but then punished them. So we will see how Denver does this week against Dallas, then New England the following week.

My week 2 update is in! (Yes, I watch all the games, this is a very educated weekly column!)

Denver:
DEFENSE! No 2 in yards allowed! Third in sacks! Fifth in interceptions! Tied for second in takeaways! And NUMBER ONE in Points allowed! The only category that counts! Denver is allowing only 6.5 points per game! Wow! All hail Mike Nolan!

That is a huge change! Our defense for the past few years could not stop anyone! Ever! This is much better and best in the NFL.

The offense looked much better. Offense is fourth overall in yards per game and 8th overall in scoring! Not quite the No 2 ranking we had last year, but everyone is learning a new system and it will get better and better!

Denver is still running a 5-2 defense that is extremely attacking and aggressive. They don't wait to see what offenses are doing! They go after the offense and try to dictate! Awesome!

The idiots in the mass media try to say, "Well, they only played Cincy and Cleveland!" These same idiots are the ones that predicted Denver to win only 3 games! Good luck with that prediction. The idiots in the mass media just repeat a few blurbs they heard. Their job is to incite conflict and get people mad. Their job is not to really know much, but pretend to. "Denver will be lucky to win three games this year after all the off season turmoil."

Next up is Oakland. They had a strong emotional showing against SD in week 1 and nearly beat them. In week 2 they sucked hard, but beat an equally awful KC team. When we win we will be 3-0 and still on top! All you have to do is win your division!

We put up 27 poits in week 2 and the offense looked much better and more fluid. Moreno and Buckhalter looked great. The WRs did their jobs, no serious dropped passes like week 1. Looks like that have adjusted well.

Go Broncos!

Saints:
Still look amazing! Wow! If only I had drafted Brees with my 4th overall pick on my fantasy team, I'd be undefeated! I regret that! They really have something special going on! It really is history in the making. Watch any NO games you can see, because years from now, you can say, "I watched them play." And their defense leads the league in interceptions, they already have 6! That's pretty impressive, considering their pass rush.

Giants:
What wide receivers? So, they clearly have addressed their WR issues and look really good. Anyone that has been following their training camp and preseason should have known this. But of course, the idiot media heads on ESPN never do. (I stopped watching ESPN many years ago..... thank god for NFL network.... I don't even have any other channels). Manningham has been a pleasant surprised. Once again, it's not straight ahead speed that matters, but rather your actual skill set.

Patriots:
Their offensive line has been woeful and it's starting to show. Their defense has lost a lot of players. I don't think they are washed up. Belicheck will have them ready and in a few weeks they will be back in form. For now, it's going to be a rough start.

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