Team: Malo's Broncos
Manager: Dr. Mohammed S. Alo

You can read about how I prepared for my draft here. Then come back and see how I did. In all my mock drafting and research, I realized that this year you could wait on a QB and TE and still do very well and have a tremendous team. That was my plan going into the draft. Other then the top 2-3 TEs and QBs, the rest were fairly interchangeable and you could get some later round guys that could easily finish in the top 5. 

We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex (WR/RB/TE), 1 PK, 1 DEF. All touchdowns are 6 points, 0.25 points per reception. As you can see, our league heavily favors running backs and diminishes WRs. Keep that in mind while reading this.

Going into the draft I thought I would do as follows: (after extensive mocking)

Round 1: Frank Gore
Round 2: Greg Jennings
Round 3: J. Charles or Pierre Thomas
Round 4: CJ Spiller or the top TE
Round 5: A. Bradhsaw
Round 6: Arien Foster or Eli Manning
Round 7: Zach Miller
Round 8: Malcolm Floyd
Round 9:Kareem Huggins
Round 10: Kyle Orton
Round 11:Jabar Gaffney
Round 12: Any Kicker
Round 13: Whatever defense is available
Round 14: Miles Austin (my keeper)

That was my plan. I mocked and mocked and I found this combination of players to be my favorite. I thought that the top 5-7 QBs were going to go way too high and that I don't want them. I also found the TE class was really deep. You could get Cooley and Miller really late, and I don't think they'd be that far behind the top guys in production. I was going to wait till the very end to draft my QB and TE and I had two in mind that I thought would really perform well. I know the Broncos and the Raiders well. I know Orton will surpass his ADP by many, many rounds and will end up being a top 8 QB. I spent a lot of time debating whether I would wait and take Orton at the end or follow my usual strategy and get a guy like Romo earlier or take guys like Mannig and Palmer in the mid rounds. This decision drove me insane after a while, and I decided that I will follow my gut and just wait and grab Orton later on. Zach Miller is Jason Campbell's favorite target and last year he finished way ahead of many others and he was catching passes from 5 different QBs. He is a steal this late.

So how did my draft go? Better than I ever expected!

Here is what happened:

Round 1: Frank Gore
Round 2: Jamal Charles
Round 3: Larry Fitzgerald
Round 4: CJ Spiller
Round 5: Philip Rivers
Round 6: Hakeem Nicks
Round 7: Zach Miller
Round 8: NYJ Defense
Round 9: Laurence Maroney
Round 10: Kareem Huggins
Round 11: Larry Johnson
Round 12: Kyle Orton
Round 13: Denver Defense
Round 14: Miles Austin (my keeper)

I think I made out like a bandit. People were snapping up running backs like crazy! My semi-sleeper, Arien Foster, who I was planning on drafting in round 6, got snapped up in round 2. I was targeting Greg Jennings in round 2, thinking people would be snapping up top WRs. Guess what? I ended up with LARRY FITZGERALD in round 3! The third best WR overall made it to me in round 3! That was unbelievable. What's even more bizarre the guy drafting just before me in round three made some insanely crazy trade to move up a few spots and snag Marques Colston. No one was going to draft Colston. But he paid some later round picks for it. So anyways, this really made my day. I ended up with two top 20 RBs and a top 3 WR! This was definitely something I wasn't anticipating! I was really thrilled at this point. And my keeper is Miles Austin for a 14th round pick! I could do almost anything and had lots of options.

Other bizarre happenings in the first few rounds, the first QB off the board wasn't Aaron Rodgers, but rather Drew Brees. And it was a guy with a late first round pick, pick 9 or so. He could have taken an awesome running back, and right on the turn taken Drew Brees. The first QB being drafted by everyone was Rodgers. No one was really QB-happy! He could easily have gotten Brees on the turn. That's why you really gotta know your ADPs and do some mocking. The guy was ill prepared, or way to high on Brees.

I was also stunned that Arien Foster went way before round 6. I guess people are paying attention. But seeing how people were snapping up RBs left and right, you can't blame them. I was planning on snagging him in one of the later rounds.

Round 4 comes along, and CJ Spiller was staring me in the face. That's who I was planning on taking here. And I did. I felt like I was on track at this point. He is very explosive and is going to really do well this year. In college he had 21 touchdowns of over 50 yards. He was the first running back drafted, and looks to be the most agile and explosive of the RBs up in Buffalo. 

About 5-6 picks later, I had another pick. Looking at my overall board and my draft software, Philip Rivers was still available. His ADP (average draft position) was around 35 or so. The picks are currently into the 40s. I had a decision to make. I could either try to find some sort of running back, or pick a very, very good QB. I was planning on taking Ahmad Bradshaw here and then Arien Foster the next round. Both were gone! So, rather than taking an RB that will never see the playing field or a back up WR, I went ahead and took Philip Rivers. He nearly always finishes in the top 5, and I thought this was tremendous value. So I took him. (even though he plays Denver twice per year!) This kinda threw off my "wait till the end and draft Orton" strategy, but in a good way. You have to be flexible. I don't know why people weren't drafting Rivers and were picking up backups to backups... but whatever, my gain!

At this point guys were just drafting very randomly. There was no plan or strategy. Staring at cheatsheets till only a few seconds were left, then just yell out a random name. It really pays to be prepared and know exactly who you are going to draft in each round and who the alternates are. Having good draft software really helps with the decision making as well. This is where mocking is huge!

Round 6 came along, and I took Hakeem Nicks. His bye week didn't conflict with the other two WR, so I am all set at the WR position. With Fitz, Austin, and Nicks I should have a nice group. We only start 2, so it's plenty.

Round 7 came along and I was planning on drafting Zach Miller. By most ADPs I had seen, he looked like he should be gone by now. People are onto the fact that he can finish in the top 5, but he is also a name you don't think of when you think of TEs. It was my plan to take him, so I did. A couple of people grumbled and were surprised, but hey... if they did some research and planned ahead, they'd know why I chose him. One educated member of the audience was touting him as a top 10 TE. So, at least one person knew his stuff.

The farther away from the first few rounds, the more bizarre the drafting becomes. Someone drafted Chaz Schillens, an Oakland WR that is out for the year. Someone drafted Braylon Edwards, who you could have got off waivers, someone drafted Brandon Jacobs about 3 rounds before he should have been drafted who may never even play. Strange picks all across the board. But very entertaining. As educated and smart of a group that these guys are, it's sometimes perplexing to see what happens in the later rounds and how poorly prepared people are. I don't think many of them mocked and had a round by round plan in place with alternates. You have to do this if you want to win!

Round 8, I have completely filled out my roster. All my starters and flex player were selected. The WR I wanted, Floyd, was already drafted. I was planning to take a late QB here, like Manning or so. But I already had a QB, so there was no reason to take one here. The obvious pick was to take the best defense available. Having the top defense usually gives you a 2 point advantage per week. So I took the Jets defense. We'll see if they end up being the best.

Round 9, the only player left that looks like he may play and actually see the field a lot was Laurence Maroney. Figured I'd pick him up. Can't hurt. I don't think New England cares to run the ball much, unless they are grinding out games, but that's not often. I could easily drop him if he doesn't pan out. Or New England may decide that this is the year to start running, who knows.

Round 10, I took Kareem Huggins, as I had planned. He's a phenom in Tampa Bay, if Cadillac gets hurt, he should be huge. We'll have to see. Trade value to the Caddy owner too.

Round 11, I took Larry Johnson. He's Portis backup. Could be huge if Portis gets hurt.

Round 12, I took Kyle Orton. I think he is going to be a top 10 (if not higher) QB this year. Could be the pick of the year! He is in the second year of this offense, and is finally healthy. He is going to pick defenses apart. He is the new Tom Brady. Last year he was the 14th highest fantasy player OVERALL. He can only go up!

Round 13, my last round, I took Denver's defense. I think they are going to be good this year. Plus their first game is against Jacksonville, whereas my first defense is NYJ and their first game is against Baltimore. It's up in the air. I think I'll just cut them and pick up a kicker.

Round 14 is the last round and I have Miles Austin in this round. If you decide to keep a player, you lose the round he was drafted in in the following draft. If he was a free agent, you lose your last pick (14). So this is huge. His ADP is about round 2 or 3, so I am getting a 2nd round guy and losing a 14th round pick. Awesome! This gave me a lot of flexibility in the first few rounds.

My final team:

QB: Rivers, Orton
RB: Gore, Charles, Spiller, Maroney, L. Johnson, Huggins
WR: Austin, Fitzgerald, Nicks
TE: Z. Miller
PK: I'll pick up Prater
Def: Jets

Can't beat that or ask for a more well rounded team! I think I did a fine job! Most websites that rank or evaluate your draft results have me ranked top overall or in the 99th percentile. That's pretty good. I haven't felt this good about my team in a while. I think this team can really play well this year and do some damage. Go Malo's Broncos!

Final Thoughts:

I think this year my strategy was much more better than previous years and much more well thought out. I knew exactly who I wanted in each round, and I waited on my QB. The past few years I drafted QBs early in rounds 2 and 3, and that really hurt my RB depth. If my first round RB didn't pan out, I was really weak and floundered all year long trying to find RBs.

I hope you enjoyed my draft and my thoughts, you can use this strategy too in your draft!

So how do you prepare for a high stakes fantasy draft? There are lots of resources available and I will go through how I prepare for my draft. It doesn't always work out this way, but if I had unlimited time, this is what I would do.

First and foremost, know your league, the managers, and the scoring system. This will impact your draft more than anything else.

My draft preparation began long before the draft. This year, I decided to go back three years and analyze all of the drafts our league has had. I went back through the first 9 rounds of every manager for the years 2007 through 2009. I looked at what draft slot they drafted from and what place they finished the regular season in. I also analyzed what position they drafted in each round. If they drafted a running back, I put in RB. If they draft a quarterback, I placed QB in that slot. I did this for every year, every round, every manager for the last 3 drafts.

So I had a nice spreadsheet of draft tendencies and results for each player for three years. So, I could look at my charts and note that Manager One always drafts a RB in round one, and always drafts a WR in round two, regardless of whether he has the first overall pick or twelfth. I also got to see how he finished and what slot he drafted from.

Some interesting things I learned from this analysis of my league:

1. Draft slot had no bearing in how you finished. Whether you had the 1st or 5th overall pick, or even 12th... you could still finish first or last. No correlation.

2. Teams that finished in the playoffs (top 6) were teams that waited on drafting a QB. Drafting a QB in round 1 or 2, didn't correlate with a playoff finish.

3. Teams that drafted a defense early (first 6 rounds) never made the playoffs. This only happened once or twice in the last 3 years, so the "n" isn't very high. "N" being "number" in statistics.

4. Our league likes to draft running backs, regardless of the year or scoring trends. Some managers (in some years) were willing to draft their 6th running back rather than draft a starting tight end or quarterback. We can only start 3 RBs in any week. The fact that someone is willing to draft extreme depth at one position before filling out their roster, is a bit extreme. People really value RBs in our league. That being said....

5. Filling out your roster evenly translated to playoff appearances more so than not. Having your core starters by round 6 (QB, 2RB, 2WR, TE) correlated higher with playoff appearances than having an incomplete core.

6. People drafting in the top 6 draft slots nearly always chose a RB. It's not until slot 7 or 6 that you start seeing WR or QBs being drafted. You could look at it this way; the later your draft pick the more likely you are to be creative and not select a running back.

7. "Hitting" on a later round RB or QB really correlated strongly with a playoff appearance. Let's face it, we all know who the top 50 picks are going to be. That's the first 4 rounds of a 12 man draft. Once you get into the 5th round, things really vary and "hitting" on one of these fliers really helps. And I mean... can REALLY help. It can make your season.

Other general draft rules to live by:

1. After round 5, most fantasy managers are lost and draft without direction or plan. Take advantage of this. Do a ton of mock drafts and know exactly who you are going to draft in each round. If this is hard, map out your last rounds first. Kicker and defense should be your last two rounds. Then start from round one and work your way up. It's amazing to see what a guy may draft in round 10. It gets very murky, but if you have a plan and stick to it, you will be the only one with a decent draft. It's easy to draft the top 50 players. That's not hard. It's after that that you make your team and your money. Have a plan and an alternate plan for each round. The research and work should have all been done already. It's fun to watch people draft two RBs with the same bye week, or a player that is out for the season, or the back up to the back to the back up who will be cut right after the preseason, or the QB who would otherwise not be drafted, or a WR that is the 200th best WR overall, while the 45th best is still available. Don't be this guy!

2. There are a lot of undrafted players that are going to be good. Find them in the first few weeks of the season. That 14th round WR can be dumped and pick up the guy that is blowing up in week 1 that no one drafted. Hitting on some key free agents is huge. Keep your eyes open for guys who are performing well that no one thought of. Do this throughout the season, but the first few weeks make the biggest difference.

3. The first 5 weeks of your fantasy season will make or break your season. If you have won at least 4 of those games, you are virtually guaranteed a playoff spot. Also racking up early wins in first 5 weeks, gives you a lot of leverage and flexibility in terms of trading with others who have already mailed it in and are more willing to let go of their main players for possible "keeper" prospects for next year. Use this to your advantage in trades.

4. A lot of things are unpredictable and out of your control. You may have had the world's greatest draft, the best free agent pickups, never made a wrong decision during the year on who to start or sit, got good waiver pickups.... and still you lost by the slightest of margins and don't make the playoffs. It can happen. As frustrating as that is, you just have to live with it. The law of averages says that won't happen often, so have a good plan and preparation and hopefully, next year will yield better results.

Do a lot of research:

So, a lot of research should go into your draft. There are a lot of valuable resources available. I highly recommend www.FootballGuys.com. It's the best resource there is available. Very intelligent guys that have been playing fantasy football since before it has been an online game. They also invented the concept of value based drafting (VBD). Their forums are free and you can pick the brains of their writing staff and people like you from all across the world. They have won projection accuracy awards nearly every year for being the most accurate projectors of fantasy football stats. The key is to get the projections as close to reality as possible.

It all starts with projections. You can come up with your own, or rely on various fantasy websites. FootballGuys does an excellent job of projecting statistics. Further, they have plenty of tools for you to tweak projections and come up with your own. They have online tools, as well as software programs you can use. Their software called Projections Dominator lets view their projections, create your own, and weight all of the experts projections with different weighting and therefore aggregating those projections into a nice big list. What's better than that? You can then import all of their projections into their draft software called Draft Dominator (more on this later). 

You also need an ADP (Average Draft Position) list. This will tell you which round each player is being drafted in. This will help you know who will be available in each round when it is your turn to draft. This is very helpful when you mock. Sure you might like a late round quarterback, but don't draft him in round 3, when you can have him in round 8. You can get more value if you wait. FootballGuys has an ADP list that aggregates ADPs from across the world. You can select which sources you want to use. You can look at Yahoo, MFL, CBS, and NFL ADPs and see what people are drafting in each leage, or combine them together. It's very important to know where people are being drafted, so you don't over or under draft them. This also can tell you what your league mates may be thinking. Keep a current ADP list handy, or use a software like Draft Dominator to keep you up to date on all the changes and movement up and down ADP lists.

Then do your mocks. FantasyFootballCalculator.com allows you to select your draft slot and size of your league, then do a draft. Excellent resource. You draft against other real players online. This is the best implementation I have seen online for mocking. You don't have to register and sign up for anything. Jsut start mocking right away. You can also view all previous drafts that were conducted. You can also trend players over time. You can see that your favorite player was being drafted in round 2 in early June, but now that preseason has started, he is being drafted in round 5. You can graph these trends and see them visually. Awesome resource, even just to look at trends and ADP in either a list format or a grid round by round.  You can look at ADPs for 10 team leagues, 12 team leagues, 14 team leagues, you can look at PPR (point per recpetion) or no points for receptions. Very powerful tool. Don't be that guy with an old cheatsheet from June drafting guys 3 rounds before they should be drafted.

By this time you should know exactly, round by round, who you are giong to draft and an alternate player (or two) that you'd take instead, in case that player got drafted. You should also have enouhg experience to know when to jump on a player that has fallen. If the fourth best QB hasn't been drafted yet, and it's round 7 already, you should draft him, even though that may not be what was on your plan. You have to jump on opportunities when you can.

For those who want even more technology to help them, there are plenty of software programs available to you that help you draft. Nearly every website now has a "draft software" that you plug information in to, and can take to your draft on a laptop or have it open in the background on your computer, and it helps you draft. Primarily, these programs are used for organization. To be able to keep track of your team, other people's teams and needs, and who is still available. Great idea.

The best implementation of the "draft software" strategy has to be the Draft Dominator by FootballGuys. This is the most amazing piece of software you will ever encounter. It let's you customize everything to your leagues specifications and then helps you draft based on the philosophy of "value based drafting" or VBD. VBD was invented by FootballGuys decades ago, the rest of the world is finally catching up. This program is so powerful and customizable that you could write entire books on how to leverage Draft Dominator during your draft. It is simply amazing and has more features than most people can use or understand in their lifetime. And even if you just install it and use it right out of the box, it works fine for 90% of leagues. Just turn it on, and draft away. Very nice! Using a draft program really comes in handy in the mid to late rounds, when everyone else is confused. You just keep hammering away at your plan of action, while they flounder. Everyone knows who the top 50 players are. You may disagree slightly on exactly where to draft them, but they are still the 50 best players. It's the rest of the players that you need to stratify and decide on. This is where software can help. Make sure you tweak the software sufficiently so that it matches your style of drafting and isn't drafting a defense in round 4.

Familiarize yourself with whatever software you plan on using, so you don't have any technical difficulties. Always bring backup paper and pencils and printed materials and a round by round plan so that you can still work even if your computer dies.

Know the players, stay up to date on the news, read forums and various people's opinions on players. You'll be able to formulate your own opinions and information will be stuck in your head (more information than you will ever need). Go to FootballGuys.com's forums and just read the endless off-season threads and prediction threads. You will know more about each player, each position and the various position tiers than you ever thought possible. You can never know too much. Stay up to date on news and injuries. You don't want to be the guy to draft the WR that just tore his ACL yesterday.

After that, show up, eat some food, enjoy non-alcoholic beverages (let the other guys get drunk and draft poorly), start drafting and have fun with it! It should be a blast and a ton of fun!

That's how you should prepare for a high stakes fantasy draft!

Nothing is more exciting than the week leading up to fantasy football heaven, known as THE DRAFT. Twelve guys, one room, lots of food, lots of beverages, lots of talking and yapping, but most importantly.... it's draft time! The day is finally here! Best day of the year!

Saturday August 29th will be my draft. We've been doing this for 8 years now and it gets more and more exciting every year. When we started doing this a lot of us were still in college and lived close to each other. We all have jobs now, wives, children, and very few of us still live near each other. Four live in Washington DC, 1 in Columbus, 2 in Chicago, 1 in Syria (imagine that), the rest live in the wasteland known as Michigan. Nonetheless, we are all connected by this one annual event and the message board that keeps us all in tune to each other's lives, thoughts, and ramblings. Facebook also helps, but two of our neanderthals haven't figured out how to get on facebook yet.

It's pretty amazing, that back in 2002, we thought we were throwing together a quick, short lived league. We all knew each other pretty well, but not that well. It was an interesting collection of players from different walks of life and different circles. Some of us were still in our teens and barely in college at the time. Very few of us were married, and maybe only one of us had any kids to speak of. Some of the guys had never played fantasy football before, some had been playing since it was mostly tracked on paper. When we joined the league, we didn't think it would turn into a lifelong commitment and no one thought it'd go on for so long. I thought it'd be a one year deal and then fizzle out like so many other leagues I had joined before. What an amazing ride it has been!

As time went on, we got married, had kids, got real jobs, moved out, but ultimately, we somehow maintained this strong bond and strong league. It's a very competitive league with some very intelligent people. In this league we have a PhD, two physicians, two very successful businessmen, and seven lawyers. That's what makes this league fun! It's very competitive and the collection of personalities and perspectives make it very engaging. The message board is never boring! Nearly every topic humanity can think of has been discussed. Rarely is the topic just football. It's a very active message board. I mean very active! It's not unusual to see over 200 new posts/responses a day at the peak.

The draft is this Saturday and I am as giddy and excited as ever! So much so that it's hard to maintain composure and not think about the draft every day. Rethinking strategy, re-mocking, trying to figure out who everyone will draft, looking at past drafts, looking at past draft tendencies, figuring out which direction the draft will go in, all the while trying to concentrate on not going insane and looking normal at work.

Is the draft everything?

No. But, I feel that the draft is a good third of how your team will fare. The other third being in-season management (free agents pick ups, waiver wire, and sit/start decisions), and the last third being things that are out of our control (injuries, matchups, unexpected breakouts, random scoring, etc). But out of all of these, the one that gets the juices flowing the most is the draft. It's live, it's in one room, it's unpredictable, and it is the one day a year where boys can be boys and block out the rest of society! Just Food & Football!

What makes the draft a little more complicated is that we are all fasting. The past two years the draft has landed in the middle of Ramadan. Or, Ramadan has landed in the middle of our draft. So we just hold the draft after break-fast time. Simple solution. But it does add a nice, unique flavor and touch that is rather rare. It should be another great year!

Some memorable moments from drafts in the past include the very first draft which was held by teleconference. The next year we had the draft in my living room in my apartment in Chicago. We had a lot of drafts in conference rooms of hotels around Chicago's O'Hare airport. Those were probably among the best drafts we've had. We held one at the grand offices of the Harrison Alo law firm in Columbus, Ohio. Last year's draft was held in Flint, Michigan at the home of one of the guys. This year's draft will be held in Troy, Michigan at one of the guy's homes. Can't wait!

Food has always been memorable as well. Pizza, wings, pop, nachos, samosas (occasionally), sandwiches, grilled chickens, and all kinds of delights. One year we actually had fruit (someone requested it). This year will be more of the same. I am not sure how much everyone will be able to eat due to fasting all day (your stomach shrinks), but it's an all night event, so it should be good and people have time for the stomach's to outstretch. An unforgettable memory, a few years back at O'Hare, one of the guys decided that the salsa tasted so good, that he put the remaining salsa in a cup and drank it later in the wee hours of the morning as a meal replacement. Wow!

The weeks leading up to a draft are always interesting. The message board fills up with misinformation, posts about various guy's keepers and why they were so bad, taunting guys for bad picks, quotes from websites about how certain NFL players did in preseason games, and all sorts of babbling and lying. No one wants to show their hand or tip their hat. It's fun watching all the gyrations and misinformation, and people's reaction to it.

As the draft nears, everyone will be reviewing their cheatsheets, perusing websites, clinging to radio broadcasts of NFL news to see if they can gain any kind of advantage before Saturday. Then Saturday will come, and all of that is out the door. The weeks of smokescreens and misinformation and taunting will all be over. You will finally see who everyone wanted to draft and who they will draft.

The draft itself brings lots of memorable moments as well. Although, the first few rounds are fairly predictable, it really starts to get interesting after round 4. Of course, people will always reach, but it's interesting to see who reaches and on which players they reach. We have a lot of Detroit Lion fans, and every year someone reaches on Detroit Lion players, thinking that this is going to be the magical year where they take off. I am sure someone will reach this year on Stafford, Best, Smith, Burleson, and Scheffler. Of course, we have guys that like the Bengals and Browns, due to a strong Ohio contingent, and someone will reach on those players. We have a number of guys from the DC area, so expect a lot of Redskin players to come off the board where they shouldn't be. And of course, I like the Broncos, and will probably draft one at some point.

This group of guys, the comradery, the friendships, the uniqueness, the attitudes, the personalities, the bonds, and the clashes will all come to a head this weekend in epic format in a live fantasy football draft! Should be an awesome extravaganza! Can't wait! 

(Stay tuned for a draft wrap up on how I think I did and the team I end up with.)

The 2009 Denver Broncos started out 6-0, but went 2-8 down the stretch to end up 8-8. A lot of key injuries affected the team, but the 3 down lineman on defense really is what did in the defense giving up 755 yards on the ground in the last 4 games. The offense never really got going last year. Orton started out playing 3 games with a broken finger, then finished up playing on a messed up ankle. He still had his best year statistically, but they couldn't really get going. Losing two of your best offensive linemen didn't help either. They just played flat after the 6-0 start. 

The 2010 Denver Broncos are vastly improved in every department, and we'll go through them individually starting with the worst departments from last year. The players believe in McDaniels, he believes in them and they have amassed a ton of talent. All of last year's DL starters are now backups, and we've added depth at every level.

Defensive Line:

This was the biggest problem down the stretch. Ron Fields and company are all backups now. Banan, Green, and Williams are the new front 3. The DL got very beat up last year and couldn't stop anyone down the stretch. This has now been addressed and fortified. These 3 new guys are all starter caliber players that have played a lot of 3-4 ball in the NFL. Plus all of last year's starters.... they are the backups. So now we have tremendous depth at the DL. This is a huge upgrade. Probably the biggest upgrade of all of the off season.

Offensive Line:

After Ryan Harris was injured, we didn't win very many games. Weigman and Hamilton are gone, and they were the crux of the OL problems. They were being pushed around like punching bags. To replace them we drafted Center JD Walton and Guard Zane Beadles. We also added depth with Batiste and still have Olsen and Hochstein. If Ryan Clady isn't ready to play LT when the season starts, Batiste can play for him. The OL will be ready! Going up against Williams, Green, McBean, Fields, Baker, and the other nasty DL every day during practice will make them better. The rookie center is getting some help making the line calls from Olsen and Orton, but should be ready by the first pre-season game. Poor OL play is why the offense couldn't stay on the field last year and couldn't run the ball. They couldn't get a good push, nor keep Orton upright. This group has been upgraded and should play better and better as the year wears on with so many new starters. It's gonna be up to Orton to get rid of the ball quickly.

Running Backs:

McDaniels system isn't a run heavy system. Anyone who has watched New England the past few years will quickly realize, that they don't care much who the RB is nor do they care to run much. Maroney, Faulk, Jarvis-Green, Morris, it really doesn't matter. Is Denver better this year? Yes, a lot of young RB talent in camp, and we'll see what happens. Moreno hurt himself last year by holding out, so he couldn't be plugged in to play right away. Buckhalter took many of the starter snaps until Moreno was ready. Both got injured a lot last year and missed games, and that trend seems to continue. Both are injured and being held out of preseason and camp practices. This is going to slow Moreno's development even more. LenDale White was added. So was Justin Fargas, becuase White got injured. A lot of guys in camp will probably be kept on the squad due to all the injures, the two Balls, Toney Baker, and plenty of others. I hope this is not a repeat of 2008 where we go through 9 different starting running backs. I think this group is improved, but will not be a huge part of the offense, other than to close out games and hold on to a lead. Don't get too excited about them. If you are a fantasy owner, I would avoid this backfield like you do the New England backfield. No one you can actually start.

Linebackers:

This is a large group. DJ Williams leads this group as he has nearly every year. Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss will have to step up in light of Dumervil's injury, but it gives them a chance to shine. Last year towards the end of the year they finally "got it" and it shows this year in camp. They will be fine. We still have Haggan, Woodyard, Akin Ayodele, Joe Mays, Greisen, Atkins, Kirlew, Alexander and Reid. A lot of lot of players and depth. You can't replace Doom and his NFL leading 17 sacks, but we have plenty of linebackers. They played well last year despite questionable DL play. It all starts up front and with a vastly improved DL and a defensive coordinator that is on the same page as the head coach, you are going to see something special from this unit.

Wide Receivers:

No one can say losing Brandon Marshall doesn't hurt. It sure does. But we drafted his replacement.... and this kid is much faster. Demaryious Thomas is a 6 foot 3 inch 228 pound monster of a receiver thatruns a 4.3 forty yard dash and can go up and get the ball. He has an amazing vertical jump and can run after the catch like Brandon Marshall. So he is Brandon Marshall in all aspects, but much, much faster. This kid is freak of nature and a monster. Once he is full speed ahead and can play every down, you really gotta watch out. Champ Bailey is impressed by him, and that's saying a lot. He was also the second smartest kid in the NFL combine. You gotta be smart to learn this offense. The smartest player at the combine was Eric Decker, the other WR we drafted. He is also big and can stretch the field with his size. He caught nearly every ball thrown into his vicinity in college and has been doing the same at camp. He is strong and fearless. He goes deep, goes over the middle, he does it all without batting an eye. These two, once they are ready to roll will be an awesome duo. Right now, they are still rookies, still making mistakes and still trying to learn the offense. But if you've watched the camp videos and scrimmages... they are scary good. Other than Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Randy Moss, there aren't many WRs like Thomas. It's no wonder he was the first WR drafted.

The stable of WRs from last year still remain strong. Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal, Brandon Llyod, McKinely, Willis, and Stokely are still there and just make this group so much stronger. This is probably one of the better groups on this team and is a strength of the team. I don't know who will get more balls or more targets this year (a lot of fantasy owners are asking), but based on camp video and scrimmages, it seems like Royal is getting the majority of targets. We'll see what happens. The philosophy of the offense will be to get the ball to the open man, not force feed a guy like Marshall (like last year) trying to break records. The WR group looks very competent and very confident. I am not worried about them at all.

Quarterbacks:

Orton had his best year ever last year, and that's with two ankle injuries and a broken thumb. His ankle injury from his Chicago days never healed up, and he injured his other one in Denver. He had his best statistical year ever and barley knew the offense. He was thinking a lot and not playing. Now he can just play. He knows before each play what is going to happen and where the reads are. He beat San Diego, Dallas, New England, the 5-0 Giants before finally losing to Baltimore. This year McDaniels has praised Orton saying that, "99 out of 100 or 100 times out of 100 times, he puts us in the right play and goes to the correct player with the ball. He doesn't make mental mistakes. It's a night and day difference from last year." That's high praise! Orton can easily have an even better year than last year. Only 3 wide receivers in 2009 had 200+ yard games. Two of the three, Orton was throwing them the ball; Brandon Marshall and Jabar Gaffney. Orton had 3800 passing yards last year (more than Cutler) on two bum legs and a broken finger. Just imagine the possibilities this year when he actually knows what he is doing.

Quinn and Tebow are serviceable backups, much better than last year's back up, Chris Simms. But they are no where on the radar screen in terms of being ready to start. I like this group.

Secondary:

The pass defense was the lone shining star on the team. Even with the poor DL play, they ranked 3rd overall. No one in the NFL has a better secondary! I say that unequivocally. Champ and Goodman. Dawkins and Hill. And the nicklebacks and backups are tremendous as well; Nate Jones, Alphonso Smith, Parrish Cox, Bruton, McBath. What else could you ask for? This is the dream team of defensive backs. The rest of the NFL is very jealous.

Overall:

This team looks really, really good on paper, in camp, and through various videos, news clips, and reports. I would not be surprised if they go 13-3, barring key injuries. That's how good I think they are this year. I haven't been this excited about the Broncos since their run to the second Super Bowl in 1998. The defense has added a tremendous amount of depth and talent and should not have a late season collapse like the last 5 years. The offense has added serious weapons (some of which uncoverable) and now they know what they are doing. With Orton finally being healthy for the first time in 3 years, who knows what could happen. Orton could easily break into the top 10 of QB standings (he was 14th in 2009), and maybe even the top 5 if everything goes according to plan. This team is going to surprise a lot of people and should make the playoffs.

Some bold predictions: (or just wishful thinking)

Orton finished as a top 5 QB.

Pass defense is ranked no 1.

Orton throws for over 4200 yards and close to 30 TDs.

Demaryious Thomas is the rookie of the year.

Eddie Royal finishes with 800 yards and 8 TDs.

Beats San Diego twice.

Finishes 11-5 or better.

Every year, myself and 11 of my best friends get together to have our fantasy draft and some great food. I always try to go into each draft with a strategy and a plan so as to not be caught off guard. I mock a few dozen times, until I feel that I have a good feel for how this year's draft will go. I look back at drafting tendencies of the other 11 and try and figure out what they are going to do, then I go through different scenarios. I also like to look at what the top 6 teams that made the playoffs did draftwise, or in-season adjustments.  I highly recommend you read the link below to understand my league first, before reading this year's strategy.

Last year, my strategy was as follows: http://blog.thealo.com/thealo/blog/post/THE-Draft-fantasy-football-MEL.aspx

The above link describes my league, how competitive it is and why it's so much fun. The guys in the league are my childhood friends and I love all of them very much. But I hate not being able to beat them. It's very competitive and they are all fantasy sharks. No guppies. Very tough competition. In eight years, I haven't even made the playoffs. Wow!

And my final draft results from last year were as follows: http://blog.thealo.com/thealo/blog/post/Fantasy-Football-Strategy-Pick-4-Slot-four.aspx

This year I am drafting in the third slot (I know, I wish I finished better than third worst) and plan to use the following strategy to maximize my value and my team.

Lessons Learned:

I think my biggest mistake last year was taking Brandon Jacobs 4th overall. He turned out to be a complete bomb and not worth a top 4 pick at all (not even top 100). This weakness at RB really weakend my team. It was hard to recover from the early season losses. Although Austin Miles and Jamaal Charles caught on, it was getting late in the fantasy season. Another mistake was probably taking Manning so early. I am not a big fan of taking QBs early, and I should have stuck to the strategy. I also feel that taking a defense too early was probably detrimental to my success. The difference between the top defense and the next 4-5 isn't more than a few points per week. Our league does reward more points for defense than usual set ups, but I should wait on this. Defense is hard to predict.

Bad Breaks:

Five of my games were decided by less than 8 points, three were decided by less than 2 points, and I ended up on the losing end. I did amass a nice team with good players, but I couldn't catch a break. Some things in fantasy football are out of our control. In week 1, I lost by less than a point. In week 3, I lost by 6 points. In week 4, I lost by 2 points. In week 10, I lost by 14 points. In week 12, I lost by 6 points. That was pretty much the story. After starting out 1-4, it's hard to recover. I never made lineup mistakes, I always started the best players that week. One week I opted not to start a kicker, and lost 125 to 82. A kicker was not giong to make up the 43 point difference.

Good Breaks:

I did have two of the best free agent pickups of the year in Jamaal Charles and Miles Austin. Both finished in the top 10 at their positions, with Austin Miles being the 3rd best WR overall. Neither of them really got going till week 5 or later, and I was already 4 games in the hole.

2010 Strategy:

This year, I don't want to deviate too much from my normal strategy, but I am not so rigid that I won't adjust my strategy based on how others draft. I also have a few sleeper ideas, and we'll see how well my strategy correlates to my actual draft. Last year, it correlated fairly well, but I deviated early and could not recover.

Round 1:
Here I plan on taking the best RB available. We have keepers (and I kept Miles Austin), so I will most likely have to choose between Maurice Jones Drew and Frank Gore. Either one is fine. I am all set at the WR1 position with Austin, so I don't have to consider WR until later. Either MJD or Gore look nice this high in the first round. Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice were kept and Chris Johnson will be drafted 1st overall. Should be a nice RB1 for me.

Round 2:
I have a late round 2 pick (18 picks later) 22nd pick overall. Here I am flexible. It'd be nice to get another starting RB, but the WR department may be where the most value is. I am sure 2-3 QBs will be gone (Brees, Manning, Rodgers). There is no point in drafting the 4th best QB at this point, not much value. Depends on who else is left. I am also sure the top 4-5 WRs will be gone by this time (Andre Johnson, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson). But if one of these guys falls to me, I may snap him up to pair with Austin Miles. Here I'll probably be looking at Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, maybe Jamaal Charles. If I get lucky enough (and you never know) I may get DeSean Jackson or DeAngelo Williams. We'll see where they fall. It'd be nice to have RB1 and RB2 all wrapped up by round 2 (since I already have Miles Austin). I can look for WR2 later on, and sometimes they come from the undrafted pool. We'll see how the draft goes.

Round 3:
Right after round two, I quickly get another pick (5 picks later). Here I am flexible as well. I could grab another WR or RB, like a Colston or Benson. Or I could get the 4th or 5th best QB in a guy like Romo or Brady, but the value isn't as high. If I don't get a QB here, I will look to the later rounds (7-10) for a guy like Eli Manning, McNabb, Cutler, Palmer. (Schaub was kept). The top TE also looks good here. Dallas Clark would be nice, but I will probably pass and see if I could end up with a nice stable of RBs and WRs. The top 3 TEs are usually pretty reliable to repeat, so I am not too concerned. The only problem is that my next pick is 18 picks later, and the top 3 TEs may be gone by the next time I pick. This is probably the toughest round to predict what I will do, but the above ideas are where my mind is.

Round 4:
I'll start filling holes with what's left. I may grab whatever TE is left or some other possible WRs and RBs. It's hard to know who will be around. There will be 18 picks between my 3rd round pick and my 4th, but only a few more picks between my 4th and 5th round picks. If there are remaining starting RBs left, I may grab them, even if they aren't popular picks or consensus picks. Or pick up some WRs for depth. If no one has picked the 5th or 6th best TE, I may grab him. This year it seems that there are about 8 TEs that are worth drafting.

Rounds 5-8:

This is where things can really deviate. The top 40-50 players will go in the first four rounds in a pretty predictable manner. The remaining rounds are more unpredictable. Some people like to fill holes, grab backups and handcuffs, some grab last starter remaining, some are very bizarre and out of control. But this is where you either make or break you team in terms of quality depth.

Don't be the guy here that really reaches. Here you may see some people really reach and grab that guy that no one has ever heard of or isn't even on a cheatsheet or ranking list. Ever heard of Ran Carthon? Me neither, but someone drafted him in here one year. Don't be dumb with these picks. Just because the "top 50" are gone, that doesn't mean that rest of these guys are "worthless". They are going to play and a lot of them are starters. Don't waste these picks. Don't draft the third Indianapolis Colts running back, when there are still starters available.

As a general strategy you should not even look at bye weeks until the top 50 players are gone. Get the top 50 players, then worry about bye weeks. You can address bye week holes now in rounds 5-9.

Here you want to build depth at RB and WR or grab that QB that no one else is thinking of: McNabb, Eli, Cutler, and Palmer are all decent startable QBs. They aren't going to produce 350+ points like the top 3-4 QBs, but they are quality starters. And you never know, they may break into the top 5. Every year one of the QBs drafted after the top 8, breaks into the top 5. He may be in this group.

Here you could grab less favorable RBs that still start or have a high probability of starting: Forsett, Forte, Chester Taylor, Portis, Ladanian, Spiller, Jacobs, Bradshaw, Ward, Cadillac, Mcfadden, Bush, and Tate. Who knows? They do start for their teams. You could also look at WRs like: Knox, Hester, Floyd, Arashmondu, Royal, Evans, Mason, Collie, Tate, TJ Housh, Britt, Holmes, and a few others. These guys do play, and they will be catching balls.

The idea is to build depth for your starters in case they go down, or address bye week issues. The beauty of rounds 5-8 is that no one really knows how these palyers will do. Although, people aren't high on them, any of them could finish in the top 40 or 50. These guys have the best opportuity to outperform their ADP (average draft position), since their ADP is so low. This is where you may just get lucky and "hit" on a few players that will make your season. Try to grab a bunch so you have more chances to "hit" on a guy or two. Don't be an idiot and draft 3rd string players or handcuffs just yet.

Rounds 9-12:

Approach these rounds similar to the above strategy. If no one has yet grabbed the top defense, you can do it. New York Jets are supposed to be the top defense this year. You could also take the 49ers defense, or Packers. But even defenses 5-10 don't do that much worst than the top 4.

You could also grab some handcuffs, sleepers, and back up QBs and TEs now. This is where you draft that guy no one else has on their radar.

For me, I will probably draft Kyle Orton as a back up QB and Jabar Gaffney or one of the other Denver WRs. I love Denver, and would like at least one of them on my team. They'd fill out the roster well  and give me a nice bench.

Rounds 13-14:

Pick up a kicker of some sort and a defense if you don't have one. Figure out who plays St. Louis, Cleveland, or Detroit in week 1 and pick them if you are unsure, but not if it's a division rival.

This is my overall strategy and it should do well. Too often I deviate from my strategy and it ends up hurting me. Hope you enjoyed! Please add your comments below. I'd love to hear your strategy or see the team you drafted!

It's that time of year where people start drafting their fantasy football teams and start doing research.

One thing I like to do is look at game to game consistency and production. Below is my list of players that consistently perform well, game after game, at their respective positions that you should be targetting. Consistency may be a bad thing, because you may be consistently mediocre or consistently bad. So be wary of these lists.

QB:
Aaron Rodgers. He's the only one that is in a class by himself in terms of consistency. And being consistently good. Then you have:
Roethlisberger. Consistently mediocre. But very consistent.
Brees
Schaub
Favre. Will he play this year?
P. Manning
Rivers
Brady
Romo
McNabb

RB:
Chris Johnson
Adrian Peterson
Ray Rice
Frank Gore
Thomas Jones. He may have a more reduced role this year.
Maurice Jones Drew. This is about where you can draw the line. MJD and the above guys (except Jones) are likely going to be the top 5 RBs this year. The rest are questionable, but still have a chance to make it to the top 5. We never really know what will happen.
Ryan Grant
Steven Jackson
Joseph Addai
Cedric Benson
Ricky Williams
DeAngelo Williams. Any of these guys still have a chance at making it into the top 5 and it depends on other factors; injuries, playing time, scheming, whether their team plays well or poorly down the stretch, etc.

WR:
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Randy Moss
Miles Austin
DeSean Jackson
Sidney Rice
Reggie Wayne
Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Marques Colston
WesWelker
Steve Smith
Vincent Jackson
Roddy White

TE:
Antonio Gates
Dallas Clark
Brent Celek
Vernon Davis
Tony Gonzalez

Of all these players, Tight Ends seem to be the most consitently consistent year to year and game to game. If you draft one of the top 2 or 3 tight ends from last year, they are most likely to be one of the top 2 or 3 tight ends this year. This is good to know.

Should you be targetting these players? Yes! These guys perform the most consistently game in and game out. It's good to know. While they may not always be the guy that scores the highest at his position, he will score in a consistent manner from game to game.

Enjoy!

What would happen if you took your teams win loss record, added in your opponent's win loss record, and opponent's opponent's win loss record? Or some combination of these records? Who would be the best team in the NFL based on "Strength of Schedule?" Who has beaten more quality opponents?

I found this posted on a message board on the internet. I am not sure who originally came up with this chart and formula. But I believe it is used in college basketball (RPI). Interesting read:

Okay, maybe that doesn't look so simple. Let's break it down just a little. "WP" is winning percentage, "OWP" is Opponent's Winning Percentage, and "OOWP" is Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage. Gee, thanks for clearing that all up, Jeff. No problem.....

Let's put it this way - RPI is one part how good the team's record is, two parts how good the teams they play are, and one part how good the schedule of the teams they played. Yes, it takes some doing to figure all of that out, but the basic premise is pretty simple. If you have a good record, that counts for something - or 25% of your RPI. Now you look at your schedule, which accounts for 50%. The final 25% is the toughest thing to affect you, which is how solid the record of your opponent's really is, which is judged by who they played.

Now, I like the concept here, but I have some issues with it. First, I don't understand how you can give the same weight to your direct record (WP) and something that a team has zero control over (OOWP). How is that fair? If Team A beats Team B, how is it fair to consider Team B's schedule as worth the same amount as your team's record? I don't.

There are "tweaks" out there that adjust the RPI math some, and I liked some of what they did - doing things such as subtracting a team's record from their opponent's record. This is considered a "modified" record, and has associated a "Modified OWP" (MOWP) and "Modified OOWP" (MOOWP). That makes sense to me - if Denver is 6-0 and their opponents are 16-18, that's not as accurate as taking away those six wins by Denver. If it wasn't for the Broncos, the opponents would actually be 16-12, a winning record and quite a bit different than 16-18. Another tweak is to remove the extra weight to the Opponent's Win Percentage (making WP, OWP and OOWP all equal). I can see this as good or bad, so color me indifferent on that one. 

This is already far too complicated, so I decided to hedge my bets and look at all four answers for team rankings, sort them by the average and let the chart speak to me, so here it is:

Here are the definitions of how I calculated the four rankings:

• Rk 1 = (1/3) WP + (1/3) OWP + (1/3) OOWP
• Rk 2 = (1/4) WP + (1/3) OWP + (1/4) OOWP
• Rk 3 = (1/3) WP + (1/3) MOWP + (1/3) MOOWP
• Rk 4 = (1/4) WP + (1/2) MOWP + (1/4) MOOWP

With

• (WP) = Winning Percentage
• (OWP) = Opponent's Winning Percentage
• (OOWP) = Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage
• (MOWP) = Modified Opponent's Winning Percentage
• (OOWP) = Modified Opponent's Opponent's Winning Percentage

So what do I see from the chart? There are some interesting things to take note:

1. According to this, the Super Bowl should be Denver and Minnesota. Of course, they don't play the Super Bowl on Halloween, but the Denver throwbacks are pretty scary. Either way, I'd rather see some other teams in the mix here.
2. Cincinnati isn't so bad after all. They actually benefit from the Denver loss as they are Top 10 across the board and also above some teams with zero or one losses.
3. The six AFC playoff teams should be Denver, Cincinnati, New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Diego. Not a bad list, but the Colts should be there - and are just off this list at #13. That's due to Tennessee's terrible record. Look for Indy to push San Diego off this list.
4. The six NFC playoff teams should be Minnesota, Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago, Green Bay - and Seattle?
5. The NFC East is getting no respect, but after that 0-3 weekend in Week 6 and Dallas going nowhere fast, they deserve that amount of disrespect. Philadelphia needs to regroup fast and the New York Giants need to beat someone that's good.
6. The bottom feeders make sense. The worst six teams on the list should all be winless if it wasn't for five games between them, which gave Washington and Carolina two charity wins each and Kansas City their only victory.
7. Seattle (2-4) and Cleveland (1-5) appear to not be as bad as their records indicate, but I've seen the Browns and I respectfully disagree. I initially thought that the Seahawks were a different team with Matt Hasselbeck, but even that didn't work last week. I'm not buying either team on these middle rankings.
8. San Francisco is doing fine in the NFC West, but their 3-0 record in the division is topped by losses to Minnesota and Atlanta. Not looking so good for the NFC West winner this season, as they're a likely bet for a one-and-done in the postseason.

So there you have it - my first cut at an NFL BCS/RPI Power Ranking. Feel free to share your thoughts, but I thought that you might be interested in something a little more than a "From the Gut Top 32" ranking.

If I knew the original source of this I would credit the writer. Very interesting indeed!

Favre:
The man looked amazing this past Monday night against his old team! He's looked very mediocre and average all year, but in the last 5 quarters, he has looked amazing. It all started with the comeback against San Fransisco. He won't have to play like this all year, but he looked awesome! He is the perfect American folk hero right now. Hard to believe that he is now 40 years old! Happy birthday Brett!

Is he the best ever? It really depends on how you define best ever? I wrote an article about this here: FootballTimes.org

If you define it by statistics; Favre and Marino are the greatest ever. If you define it by super bowl appearances and wins; then it's Montana and Elway. The best combination of statistics, wins, super bowls; it's Elway.

Manning is approaching this echelon, he just needs a few more super bowl appearnces, which he will get this year! (my prediction)

No, I don't think Brady deserves to be mentioned among the likes of Elway, Montana, Favre, Kelly, Bradshaw, Aikman, Manning. Brady's Patriots lucked their way into their first super bowl in a post 911 world with the tuck rule. A rule which hasn't been used in 40 years prior to that. Shouldn't Patriots win after terrorists attack us? Then they go on to barely win those three super bowls by field goals (except the one against Philly, but it wasn't outright domination). The Elways. Aikmans, and Montanas destroyed their opponents and carried their teams through the playoffs and into super bowls. Montana did not barely win super bowls, he annihilated people! Brady isn't especially physically gifted or talented, just happen to be in the right place at the right time (sorta like Aikman, but with a lot more luck on his side).

What's your definition QB greatness?

Minny:
How good is their defense? Wow! At every level. The Williams brothers stop the inside at the line, Jared Allen outside eats everyone alive, and the secondary is nothing to laugh out either with Ohio State's Antoine Winfield and decent safeties. Can't wait to see what they will do to St. Louis this weekend! If San Fran put up 44 fantasy points against St. Louis, imagine what Minny can do! (see below for more on St. Louis)

Cutler:
I keep hearing Chicagoans say, "What has he done?" or "He isn't anything special." Just wait folks. Luckily, he hasn't had to go ot and win a game by himself. But if he has to.... he can! You should hope that he never has to. Going into half time tied at 21-21 was scary. Not because it was a tie game. But because Detroit actually scored 21 points! Anytime Detroit scores more than 3 points against your defense, you need to panic. Also, Kevin Smith almost single handedly cost me my fantasy win! Whatever Lovie said to them, it worked! Cutler is still the best QB in the NFL and I still think the Bears will be in the Super Bowl! They just gotta straighten out their defense. And it seems like they are doing that.

Mike MCCarthy: (GB coach)
I am not sure if anyone else noticed, but why was he wearing a winter jacket inside the Metro Dome? Is he insane? Domes are usually kept at a cool 72 degrees. He was wearing an oversized winter coat and was sweating. His forehead was dripping with sweat. Wow man!

GB:
Once again, why oh why did you draft BJ Raji? They need serious help on the offensive line. They should have taken Oher or Munro. This makes no sense. GB defense is playing well, and should keep them in a lot of games. Dom Capers new scheme is more of an attacking style, but they do give up a lot of big plays. If they could only protect Rodgers. Despite running for his life, and being sacked more than anyone else, Rodgers has still played well. Which leads us to our next topic....

Aaron Rdogers:
This kid is good! I mean, really good! He is easily a top 5 QB in the NFL.  He can play ball, he just needs a life insurance policy. Why on earth can't he sit back and worry about finding open WRs.... why does he have to be running for his life all day? This guy is an amazingly talented QB (weep Alex Smith) and it's a shame they didn't address his protection this off season. But hey, they got BJ Raji (and sometimes he is on the field and plays). Jennings need sto focus on catching the football before he becomes the next Braylon. Speaking of which...

Cleveland Browns:
Braylon has the most dropped passes in the NFL. That is inexcusable! Why would a change in sceneray help? Jets fans will be disappointed. I'd much rather have Chancy Stucki (who actually catches balls) than a prima donna player who is fairly worthless, but thinks he is worth something. Something wasn't right in Cleveland. Something happend behind the scenes, and we may never find out. Good riddance. It looks like the Browns now have an offense and are actually scoring points with Derek Anderson at the helm. Not sure why, but it's working. Their offense was actually moving the ball and producing points. That is a surprise. And Mohammed Massquio (spelling?) looks like the new number one WR for Cleveland.

Colts:
Manning is an awesome quarterback! Not as physically gifted or talented as Jay Cutler, but he is the best executioner at the QB position in all of football . (Can you even use execution in this way?) He knows how to execute an offense and exploit defenses like there's no tomorrow. If Cutler can develop Manning's mental gift and aptitude, he would be eliter (more elite?) than anyone else. It's a thing of beauty watching Manning play. Wow! Exploiting the cover two to drop the ball into Garcon's hands with the safety and corner draped over Garcon was an amazing feat. After the elite QBs of the late 80s and early 90s retired, there was a huge dearth at QB and I kept saying to myself, man... where is the next Montana, Marino, Kell, Elway? We have him folks! Manning is awesome!

A lot of us look back and say, "I watched Marino/Elway/Montana play.... he was awesome!" You have a chance to watch Manning play! Don't waste it! If you live in Chicago drive down to Indy to watch him in action at the new Lucas Oil Field! You won't regret it and in 20 years you can say. "I watched Manning!" Priceless!

Cowboys:
This team is not a bad team. They just have run into hungrier and much more talented teams. Yes, the Cowboys are not as talented as the hype machine would like us to think. But they could make more out of their situations. They just don't seem to want it and seem a little laxidaisical about it. This reflects the attitude of their coaching staff. They are too laid back and have no sense of urgency. I don't think they will have a losing record, but they will struggle in their division. Philly and the Giants are much stronger at this time. Someone needs to kick them in the ass! Have you ever seen a WR catch a ball and wander around for 51 yards and have nearly 8 Cowboys miss on tackling him? Granted, Brandon Marshall is an extremely talented WR, but come on! How do you not tackle him? And Newman needs to stop lying about Marshall grabbing his shirt. We aren't dumb. We watched the tape 200 times. Marshall didn't do anything. What he did was make a nice catch. Newman had many opportunities to tackle him afterwards, and didn't. Stop making excuses and man up. Just shut up and play ball!

Houston:
We have a problem! Kubiak seems to follow the Shanahan style of babying your players and taking it easy on them in the off season. They have been plagued by injuries and can never stay healthy. This is what did Shanahan in the last three years. Not working the players hard in summer, so they get groin pulls, turf toe, hamstrings, shoulders, biceps... and all kinds of nagging injuries that ultimately lead to late season collapses. Denver lost 7 running backs to these types of nagging injuries. Lost Champ Bailey to the groin and the list goes on. Kubiak's days are numbered. He has installed as great offense (like Shanny), but if players keep getting hurt, they won't hold up and Kubes will lose his job.

Titans:
No more! Wow..... damn, just run the ball! And why is their secondary giving up so many yards? Holy Toledo!

McDaniels Vs Belicheck:
It's always an advantage for the guy leaving to play his old team. Remember Gruden coaching Tampa Bay against Rich Ganon and Oakland? Tampa Bay's defense knew everything Ganon was going to do, and annhiliated them. I think the same will happen here, except we are dealing with a mastermind chess player. Belicheck will not be as dumb as Oakland, and will have plenty of surprises for his prodigy. McDaniels is an awesome coach! What he has been doing in the off season, through minicaps, OTAs, and so far during the year has been sensational! He is humble, talented beyond belief, and extremely experienced. He has coached defense, special teams, and a record setting offense! He knows what he is doing. Should be an awesome chess match. I still think Denver wins because Denver's talent on defense is far superior to New Englands. NE has too many young guys that are raw. McDaniels knows their weaknesses and will beat them. I'm sure Brady won't be dumb enough (a la Romo) to keep throwing at Champ Bailey. Guess what? Andre Goodman is on the other side. You will see interceptions abound!

Worst teams?
The worst team in football has to be St. Louis, quickly followed by Cleveland. After that I'd say Tampa Bay. These teams are really bad.

Exciting news!

The NFL offers three ways to enjoy every game on your new Palm Pre phone. There is always NFL Mobile Live on almost every Sprint phone. There is always Sprint TV on the smartphones so you can go to the NFL Network and watch live. And now, there is the DirectTV Application that allows you to watch any game live if you have Sunday Ticket and Superfan!

This is great news for NFL fans! The Pre is by far the phone of choice now for NFL fans. Imagine being at a game and checking the NFL app for scores, fantasy updates, checking in on your fantasy team and other players? Imagine deciding to watch the end of another game that is close (or your rivals)? Imagine having the ability to watch ANY NFL GAME ANY TIME!

Wow! Technology is awesome!

Through the DirectTV app, you can watch the new NFL RedZone channel, or any game live, or all the highlights! Can you beat this?

And since Sprint is dropping the Pre's price, yuo may want to get one!

Thank you NFL, thank you Sprint, thank you DirectTV! This is going to be the best season ever!

This year, everyone drafted well, with few exceptions. All the guys have finally figured out how to use the Average Draft Position cheat sheets and are drafting pretty reliable and predictably. No one sways any more from the published cheat sheets. It makes drafts more predictable and easier to practice for. Of course, you have an occasional wierd pick, but not too many.

It's hard to gain an advantage when everyone is too damn smart and drafts well. Once again, I think it will come down to luck and injury management.

So how did my draft go?

I felt that I got what I wanted. I wanted to forgo one of the top two QBs for a solid running back, and then let the draft come to me. I think I faired well, with no real weaknesses. Here are my results.

Round 1: I took Brandon Jacobs. I like him a lot. I had the fourth overall pick and a lot of RBs were kept, so he was my favorite one of the remaining RBs. He is no longer sharing and should get the bulk of teh carries. I really contemplated chosing Brady here, but then I'd have very shaky RBs and WRs. Is the drop off between Brady and Brees that much? I thought, I'd be able to get Brees in round two, or at least may be luck into him. It almost happened.

Round 2: Brees and Brady are both gone, Peyton Manning was next on my list. I took him here, due to the huge drop off in talent at QB after Manning. He may not score as much as the above two, but he will be pretty close.

Round 3: I took the remaining starting RB in Thomas Jones. He was tops in the AFC last year, and should do well again this year. No one else was available in non-share situation.

Round 4: I took Anthony Gonzalez the Indy WR, I think he will have a nice year, especially with Harrison gone.

Round 5-7: I took Eddie Royal, Greg Olsen, and Moreno. Eddie should be a decent WR2. Hopefully, he can be Denver's Wes Welker in their new spread offense. Olsen, I think will be the new No 1 TE with Cutler throwing everything at him. Cutler loves TEs. Moreno is a project. We'll see if he starts or get some carries. After a few weeks it will be obvious. He's been banged up. I held off on drafting an early defense, because the defense I wanted was rated much lower this year. It's nice when things go as planned.

Rounds 8-14: I took Minesota's Defense, which tends to score a lot of points. I took Jason Elam as a kicker. I also took Hines Ward and a few projects in Ladell Betts, Hixon, Chris Brown. We'll see if they pan out. Hixon seems like he is the only viable WR in New York. I also took Garrard as my backup QB. One guy in our league has no real QB, and I was supposed to play him in week 1, so I took Garrard. I think Garrard will have a big year with all teh new WRs and healthy O-line. Maybe I will trade him later to him.

Over all my starting team looks like:

QB: P. Manning
RBs: Jacobs, Jones
WRs: Royal, Gonzalez
TE: Olsen
Flex: Moreno/Ward
K: Elam
Def: Minny

Decent starters and some depth and some projects. I may fine tune the projects and kicker as the season goes forward.

Any thoughts?