Every year, myself and 11 of my best friends get together to have our fantasy draft and some great food. I always try to go into each draft with a strategy and a plan so as to not be caught off guard. I mock a few dozen times, until I feel that I have a good feel for how this year's draft will go. I look back at drafting tendencies of the other 11 and try and figure out what they are going to do, then I go through different scenarios. I also like to look at what the top 6 teams that made the playoffs did draftwise, or in-season adjustments. I highly recommend you read the link below to understand my league first, before reading this year's strategy.
Last year, my strategy was as follows: http://blog.thealo.com/thealo/blog/post/THE-Draft-fantasy-football-MEL.aspx
The above link describes my league, how competitive it is and why it's so much fun. The guys in the league are my childhood friends and I love all of them very much. But I hate not being able to beat them. It's very competitive and they are all fantasy sharks. No guppies. Very tough competition. In eight years, I haven't even made the playoffs. Wow!
And my final draft results from last year were as follows: http://blog.thealo.com/thealo/blog/post/Fantasy-Football-Strategy-Pick-4-Slot-four.aspx
This year I am drafting in the third slot (I know, I wish I finished better than third worst) and plan to use the following strategy to maximize my value and my team.
Lessons Learned:
I think my biggest mistake last year was taking Brandon Jacobs 4th overall. He turned out to be a complete bomb and not worth a top 4 pick at all (not even top 100). This weakness at RB really weakend my team. It was hard to recover from the early season losses. Although Austin Miles and Jamaal Charles caught on, it was getting late in the fantasy season. Another mistake was probably taking Manning so early. I am not a big fan of taking QBs early, and I should have stuck to the strategy. I also feel that taking a defense too early was probably detrimental to my success. The difference between the top defense and the next 4-5 isn't more than a few points per week. Our league does reward more points for defense than usual set ups, but I should wait on this. Defense is hard to predict.
Bad Breaks:
Five of my games were decided by less than 8 points, three were decided by less than 2 points, and I ended up on the losing end. I did amass a nice team with good players, but I couldn't catch a break. Some things in fantasy football are out of our control. In week 1, I lost by less than a point. In week 3, I lost by 6 points. In week 4, I lost by 2 points. In week 10, I lost by 14 points. In week 12, I lost by 6 points. That was pretty much the story. After starting out 1-4, it's hard to recover. I never made lineup mistakes, I always started the best players that week. One week I opted not to start a kicker, and lost 125 to 82. A kicker was not giong to make up the 43 point difference.
Good Breaks:
I did have two of the best free agent pickups of the year in Jamaal Charles and Miles Austin. Both finished in the top 10 at their positions, with Austin Miles being the 3rd best WR overall. Neither of them really got going till week 5 or later, and I was already 4 games in the hole.
2010 Strategy:
This year, I don't want to deviate too much from my normal strategy, but I am not so rigid that I won't adjust my strategy based on how others draft. I also have a few sleeper ideas, and we'll see how well my strategy correlates to my actual draft. Last year, it correlated fairly well, but I deviated early and could not recover.
Round 1:
Here I plan on taking the best RB available. We have keepers (and I kept Miles Austin), so I will most likely have to choose between Maurice Jones Drew and Frank Gore. Either one is fine. I am all set at the WR1 position with Austin, so I don't have to consider WR until later. Either MJD or Gore look nice this high in the first round. Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice were kept and Chris Johnson will be drafted 1st overall. Should be a nice RB1 for me.
Round 2:
I have a late round 2 pick (18 picks later) 22nd pick overall. Here I am flexible. It'd be nice to get another starting RB, but the WR department may be where the most value is. I am sure 2-3 QBs will be gone (Brees, Manning, Rodgers). There is no point in drafting the 4th best QB at this point, not much value. Depends on who else is left. I am also sure the top 4-5 WRs will be gone by this time (Andre Johnson, Wayne, Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson). But if one of these guys falls to me, I may snap him up to pair with Austin Miles. Here I'll probably be looking at Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings, maybe Jamaal Charles. If I get lucky enough (and you never know) I may get DeSean Jackson or DeAngelo Williams. We'll see where they fall. It'd be nice to have RB1 and RB2 all wrapped up by round 2 (since I already have Miles Austin). I can look for WR2 later on, and sometimes they come from the undrafted pool. We'll see how the draft goes.
Round 3:
Right after round two, I quickly get another pick (5 picks later). Here I am flexible as well. I could grab another WR or RB, like a Colston or Benson. Or I could get the 4th or 5th best QB in a guy like Romo or Brady, but the value isn't as high. If I don't get a QB here, I will look to the later rounds (7-10) for a guy like Eli Manning, McNabb, Cutler, Palmer. (Schaub was kept). The top TE also looks good here. Dallas Clark would be nice, but I will probably pass and see if I could end up with a nice stable of RBs and WRs. The top 3 TEs are usually pretty reliable to repeat, so I am not too concerned. The only problem is that my next pick is 18 picks later, and the top 3 TEs may be gone by the next time I pick. This is probably the toughest round to predict what I will do, but the above ideas are where my mind is.
Round 4:
I'll start filling holes with what's left. I may grab whatever TE is left or some other possible WRs and RBs. It's hard to know who will be around. There will be 18 picks between my 3rd round pick and my 4th, but only a few more picks between my 4th and 5th round picks. If there are remaining starting RBs left, I may grab them, even if they aren't popular picks or consensus picks. Or pick up some WRs for depth. If no one has picked the 5th or 6th best TE, I may grab him. This year it seems that there are about 8 TEs that are worth drafting.
Rounds 5-8:
This is where things can really deviate. The top 40-50 players will go in the first four rounds in a pretty predictable manner. The remaining rounds are more unpredictable. Some people like to fill holes, grab backups and handcuffs, some grab last starter remaining, some are very bizarre and out of control. But this is where you either make or break you team in terms of quality depth.
Don't be the guy here that really reaches. Here you may see some people really reach and grab that guy that no one has ever heard of or isn't even on a cheatsheet or ranking list. Ever heard of Ran Carthon? Me neither, but someone drafted him in here one year. Don't be dumb with these picks. Just because the "top 50" are gone, that doesn't mean that rest of these guys are "worthless". They are going to play and a lot of them are starters. Don't waste these picks. Don't draft the third Indianapolis Colts running back, when there are still starters available.
As a general strategy you should not even look at bye weeks until the top 50 players are gone. Get the top 50 players, then worry about bye weeks. You can address bye week holes now in rounds 5-9.
Here you want to build depth at RB and WR or grab that QB that no one else is thinking of: McNabb, Eli, Cutler, and Palmer are all decent startable QBs. They aren't going to produce 350+ points like the top 3-4 QBs, but they are quality starters. And you never know, they may break into the top 5. Every year one of the QBs drafted after the top 8, breaks into the top 5. He may be in this group.
Here you could grab less favorable RBs that still start or have a high probability of starting: Forsett, Forte, Chester Taylor, Portis, Ladanian, Spiller, Jacobs, Bradshaw, Ward, Cadillac, Mcfadden, Bush, and Tate. Who knows? They do start for their teams. You could also look at WRs like: Knox, Hester, Floyd, Arashmondu, Royal, Evans, Mason, Collie, Tate, TJ Housh, Britt, Holmes, and a few others. These guys do play, and they will be catching balls.
The idea is to build depth for your starters in case they go down, or address bye week issues. The beauty of rounds 5-8 is that no one really knows how these palyers will do. Although, people aren't high on them, any of them could finish in the top 40 or 50. These guys have the best opportuity to outperform their ADP (average draft position), since their ADP is so low. This is where you may just get lucky and "hit" on a few players that will make your season. Try to grab a bunch so you have more chances to "hit" on a guy or two. Don't be an idiot and draft 3rd string players or handcuffs just yet.
Rounds 9-12:
Approach these rounds similar to the above strategy. If no one has yet grabbed the top defense, you can do it. New York Jets are supposed to be the top defense this year. You could also take the 49ers defense, or Packers. But even defenses 5-10 don't do that much worst than the top 4.
You could also grab some handcuffs, sleepers, and back up QBs and TEs now. This is where you draft that guy no one else has on their radar.
For me, I will probably draft Kyle Orton as a back up QB and Jabar Gaffney or one of the other Denver WRs. I love Denver, and would like at least one of them on my team. They'd fill out the roster well and give me a nice bench.
Rounds 13-14:
Pick up a kicker of some sort and a defense if you don't have one. Figure out who plays St. Louis, Cleveland, or Detroit in week 1 and pick them if you are unsure, but not if it's a division rival.
This is my overall strategy and it should do well. Too often I deviate from my strategy and it ends up hurting me. Hope you enjoyed! Please add your comments below. I'd love to hear your strategy or see the team you drafted!
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