Every year during labor day weekend, myself and 11 friends get together, enjoy a lavish dinner and have our fantasy football draft. Our league is called The Michigan Elite League and this is our 6th year (maybe 7th, not sure).
The group is extremely competitive. I am a fantasy (and real) football fanatic. I love playing football, love watching every game (thank you Direct TV Sunday Ticket), love discussing various offenses and defenses, love scheming, love reading football strategy and history books, and love teaching football to others on weekends. I spend most of my fall and winter weekends playing tackle football and a few nights in summer playing under the lights.
Let me say this, I haven't once made the playoffs in this league. That's how competitive and insane this league is!
For the last 12 years, I have been involved in fantasy football. I have been in hundreds of leagues. I normally finish in the top two or three slots, advance in the playoffs, and have won a ton of championships.
But not so, in this league! Which is driving me crazy! I am extremely competitive at everything in life, and I can't stand not even finishing in the top half of this league!
The league is made up of mostly extremely intelligent lawyers, two bright businessmen, one other physician, and a research scientist with a doctorate degree. They are all very devoted, very competitive, very smart, and do well managing their teams.
When you have a group that is all high level players, it is hard to gain an advantage. Luck starts to play a serious role. They all have a draft strategy and draft failry well. Every once in a while you have some boneheaded draft mistakes, but over all, they draft great teams. The little nuances begin to make a difference.
I always say that success in fantasy football is usually 33% draft, 33% luck, and 33% management (waiver pickups, free agents, who to start each week). I think that in this league, draft and management are fairly equal. They all draft well and manage like hawks. The rest seems to come down to luck. And that part drives me crazy!
My draft strategy this year (if the MEL guys are paying attention, great! since our draft is tomorrow night!).....
I have the 4th over all pick. We do have keepers and some players were kept and are not available to us. I plan on taking a nice starting running back with my first round pick. I am not sure who will be available to me, but I would guess Tomlinson, Gore, Steven Jackson, Jacobs, Slaton, Portis, Westbrook, Brown and a few others. I'll probably take one of these guys. I am seriously contemplating taking Jacobs (since I wanted him to be my keeper, but submitted my choice after the deadline).
In round two, I have a later pick and it depends on who is left. I may try and grab whatever top WRs are left. Moss, Fitz, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Boldin, White or another RB if all of those guys are gone. Barber, Grant, McFadden (as a Denver Bronco fan, I hate drafting AFC West players, and I won't do it), or maybe even a QB like Brees or Brady if still on the board. But I doubt I'll draft a QB, I hate overpaying for QBs, although they are overvalued in our league with passing TDs being 6 points.
Round three, I have no strategy for this round. I will let the draft come to me. Whatever is left. I may reach on the top TE like Gates/Witten/Gonzo, or any nice WRs left Ocho Cinco, Houshmanzadeh, Bowe (AFC West), I may also take a flier on some 3rd-4th tier RBs like Larry Johnson or Marshawn Lynch, may be even Moreno (although he is banged up and doesn't get the entire workload). It will be interesting to see what everyone else does. I'll probably end up with a WR or RB.
Round 4, I'll grab a QB if one of my favorites are still left (Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers(was kept, can't get him)). Or snag some more RBs, WRs or a TE if one hasn't been selected yet. It all depends on which names are left. Names in this area are like Reggie Bush, Addai, Tony Gonzalez, Philip Rivers (AFC West), Donald Brown, Johnathon Stewart, Romo, Chris Wells, Roy Williams, Derrick Ward, Lance Moore (TOLEDO!), and a few otehrs I like. If others over pay for QBs and WR, which I think will happen may be I can land a nice RB. Chris Wells is probably be a steal in here, since he will probably be the starter after 2-3 weeks in Arizona. Plus he is from Ohio State! Bonus!
Round 5, I will surely grab a QB if I don't have one yet. Shaub and Garrard are in this range. I may grab a top flight defense like Steelers, Minny, or Giants, Ravens. Who knows. I think round 5 I have traditionally selected my Defense. Pick the best one and don't worry about it. If not, more RBs and WRs like Graham, Cotchery, Coles, Hester, Evans, Royal, Ginn, maybe some RBs like Felix and Julius Jones. If I take a QB here, it'd be McNabb or Cutler (although they don't seem to want to pass, they'd rather run, but you can't argue about his talent). Both should be available.
Round 6-14, I just try to fill in holes, draft sleepers, grab backups to my starters, a defense and kicker if I don't have one yet. Maybe a back up QB if someone else really needs a QB and there is only one good one left.
Everyone in our draft has finally figured out the value-based draft strategy, as opposed to a stringent strategy where you draft based on position and or to fill starting spots. Some of the guys in years past would only draft running backs or draft RB-RB-QB or some other method. The mold has been broken, and now they are looking at cheat sheets, draft boards, average draft postion and tryng to maximize value based on average drat position (ADP). It'd be nice if everyone followed these ADPs. Then I could just choose my players, slightly overpay (draft them earlier than expected) and know exactly who I am going to have. Of course, it doesn't always work out this way. You always end up with unexpected picks and you find out that people are willing to overpay for players you never thought to overpay for.
One of my rules, is to always know your opponents. I know the guys in my league pretty well now. I have some predictions.
1. Fitzgerald and Moss will be gone by the 16th pick overall.
2. Brees and Brady will be gone by the 20th pick overall.
3. People will overpay for Rookie RBs (Wells, Moreno, Brown, McCoy, Coffee, Green). Last year this was flagrant.
4. Witten will be gone by round 3.
5. Brees may be gone in the first round.
6. Someone's timer will expire, and he will get jumped.
7. Food will be consumed at a massive rate (although Ramadan kinda throws this off).
8. There will be violence, or threats of violence.
9. Someone will attempt to make a speech and be laughed down.
10. There will be a humorous power point presentation to remember last year's season.
It will be interesting nonetheless! Ramadan kinda throws a wrench into this year's draft, since we are al fasting, need to break our fasts (eat) and then start our draft. Should be fun though!
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